San Antonio Spurs at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Stephon CastlePoints23
- Stephon CastleAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds13
Clippers- Darius GarlandPoints25
- Darius GarlandAssists10
- Jordan MillerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–115
- Q40.1Clippers offensive team rebound119–115
- Q40.4Bennedict Mathurin misses heave jump shot119–115
- Q40.7Bennedict Mathurin defensive rebound119–115
- Q43.5Victor Wembanyama misses free throw 2 of 2119–115
- Q43.5Spurs offensive team rebound119–115
- Q43.5Victor Wembanyama misses free throw 1 of 2119–115
- Q43.5Kobe Sanders personal take foul119–115
- Q44.7Darius Garland makes driving layup119–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:08Kris Dunn makes 26-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)SA 1 – 13 LAC · LAC 44% → 51% +6LAC 44% → 51%+6 pts
- Q15:24Darius Garland makes 35-foot three pointerSA 11 – 20 LAC · LAC 40% → 46% +7LAC 40% → 46%+7 pts
- Q15:03Darius Garland makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotSA 11 – 23 LAC · LAC 46% → 53% +7LAC 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q13:28Devin Vassell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 18 – 27 LAC · SA 46% → 53% +7SA 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q29:51Jordan McLaughlin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 37 – 37 LAC · SA 64% → 71% +7SA 64% → 71%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- SA -8.5
- ML SA -340 / LAC +270
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -4
- SA 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- SA: Elo 66.2%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- SA -286
- LAC +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 121.5 – 113.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1650 | 1589 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +38 | −54 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +116 Elo | SA 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 65.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30118.8 | Points scored | 113.423rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 112.610th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.8 | Margin | +0.918th of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.3 | Offense rating | 114.811th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 114.019th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.8 | Pace | 98.328th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3022–11 | Road vs home | 19–1414th of 30 |
| 6th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150012th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301650 | Elo rating | 15898th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–28 | 36–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 27–22 | 15–19 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 29–39 | 36–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 2–6 LAC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 8.
- Mar 6LAC 112 @ SA 116Picked SA 71%Hit
- Apr 8SA 117 @ LAC 122Picked LAC 84%Hit
- Jan 29LAC 128 @ SA 116Picked LAC 61%Hit
- Dec 31LAC 86 @ SA 122Picked SA 59%Hit
- Nov 4SA 104 @ LAC 113Picked LAC 61%Hit
- Nov 22LAC 109 @ SA 102Picked LAC 63%Hit
- Nov 20LAC 124 @ SA 99Picked LAC 55%Hit
- Oct 29SA 83 @ LAC 123Picked LAC 56%Hit