Charlotte Hornets at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints22
- Kon KnueppelAssists3
- Kon KnueppelRebounds6
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints32
- Stephon CastleAssists10
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–115
- Q417.1shot clock turnover102–115
- Q441.5Miles Bridges makes 26-foot running jump shot (Sion James assists)102–115
- Q443.7Sion James defensive rebound99–115
- Q447.2Victor Wembanyama misses 27-foot three point jumper99–115
- Q456.2Coby White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kon Knueppel assists)99–115
- Q41:12Victor Wembanyama makes 26-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)96–115
- Q41:22Stephon Castle defensive rebound96–112
- Q41:25Sion James misses 23-foot three point jumper96–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:50LaMelo Ball makes 27-foot running jump shot (Moussa Diabate assists)CHA 13 – 10 SA · CHA 32% → 38% +6CHA 32% → 38%+6 pts
- Q19:35Julian Champagnie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)CHA 13 – 13 SA · SA 62% → 68% +6SA 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q21:36Stephon Castle makes 24-foot three point jumper (Victor Wembanyama assists)CHA 46 – 54 SA · SA 76% → 82% +6SA 76% → 82%+6 pts
- Q49:33Miles Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)CHA 88 – 92 SA · CHA 15% → 25% +10CHA 15% → 25%+10 pts
- Q49:17Keldon Johnson makes 4-foot two point shot (Victor Wembanyama assists)CHA 88 – 94 SA · SA 75% → 82% +7SA 75% → 82%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SA -6.5
- ML CHA +200 / SA -245
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -4
- SA 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- SA: Elo 66.0%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- SA -213
- CHA +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 113.0 – 119.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1642 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +65 | +50 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | CHA crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +115 Elo | SA 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 67.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 66.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 118.84th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 112.18th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+3.4 | Margin | +6.74th of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 116.34th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 109.83rd of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.5 | Pace | 101.912th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3020–16 | Road vs home | 25–72nd of 30 |
| 30th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 15068th of 30 |
| 9th of 301571 | Elo rating | 16424th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–26 | 39–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–10 | 26–22 |
| Underdog | 27–16 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 26–41 | 29–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 4–1 SA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.