New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints26
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds15
Nets- Josh MinottPoints22
- Nolan TraoreAssists7
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–92
- Q40.0Nets offensive team rebound93–92
- Q40.0Ben Saraf misses heave jump shot93–92
- Q42.9Mitchell Robinson enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns93–92
- Q42.9Nets Full timeout93–92
- Q42.9Ben Saraf defensive rebound93–92
- Q44.9Karl-Anthony Towns misses free throw 2 of 293–92
- Q44.9Knicks offensive team rebound93–92
- Q44.9Karl-Anthony Towns misses free throw 1 of 293–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:46Ben Saraf makes driving layup (Ochai Agbaji assists)NY 84 – 83 BKN · BKN 17% → 26% +9BKN 17% → 26%+9 pts
- Q45:20Ochai Agbaji makes 1-foot running dunk (Josh Minott assists)NY 84 – 85 BKN · BKN 27% → 38% +11BKN 27% → 38%+11 pts
- Q42:19Jalen Brunson makes 10-foot two point shotNY 88 – 87 BKN · NY 53% → 71% +18NY 53% → 71%+18 pts
- Q41:34Jalen Brunson makes 13-foot pullup jump shotNY 90 – 87 BKN · NY 71% → 87% +16NY 71% → 87%+16 pts
- Q45.4Nolan Traore makes 22-foot running pullup jump shot (Chaney Johnson assists)NY 93 – 92 BKN · BKN <1% → 10% +10BKN <1% → 10%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 92%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- NY -18.5
- ML NY -2100 / BKN +1100
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 90%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -14
- NY 90%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- NY: Elo 90.3%, market 92.0%
- Fair odds
- NY -1145
- BKN +1145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 116.5 – 98.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1652 | 1303 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | −53 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +387 Elo | NY 90.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 89.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 89.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 92.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 106.430th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 115.716th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.6 | Margin | −9.328th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.3 | Offense rating | 107.430th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 116.827th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.4 | Pace | 98.627th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–824th of 30 |
| 11th of 3019–16 | Road vs home | 9–2530th of 30 |
| 26th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 15131st of 30 |
| 4th of 301652 | Elo rating | 130329th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–34 | 31–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–28 | 4–1 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 27–37 |
| Overs–unders | 35–36 | 31–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 11–0 BKN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 11.