Oklahoma City Thunder at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Jared McCainPoints26
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Aaron WigginsRebounds7
Nets- Jalen WilsonPoints15
- Nolan TraoreAssists6
- Chaney JohnsonRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–92
- Q411.4shot clock turnover121–92
- Q435.5Josh Minott makes free throw 3 of 3121–92
- Q435.5Josh Minott makes free throw 2 of 3121–91
- Q435.5Josh Minott makes free throw 1 of 3121–90
- Q435.5Jared McCain shooting foul121–89
- Q446.9Payton Sandfort makes 22-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)121–89
- Q41:00Chaney Johnson makes running dunk (Nolan Traore assists)118–89
- Q41:07Josh Minott defensive rebound118–87
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:14Cason Wallace makes 1-foot running dunkOKC 2 – 0 BKN · OKC 92% → 94% +1OKC 92% → 94%+1 pts
- Q110:56Noah Clowney makes 10-foot two point shotOKC 2 – 2 BKN · BKN 6% → 8% +1BKN 6% → 8%+1 pts
- Q19:32Chet Holmgren makes reverse dunk (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 4 – 2 BKN · OKC 92% → 94% +1OKC 92% → 94%+1 pts
- Q18:28Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes driving layup (Chet Holmgren assists)OKC 6 – 2 BKN · OKC 93% → 95% +1OKC 93% → 95%+1 pts
- Q15:50Jared McCain makes 27-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 14 – 6 BKN · OKC 95% → 96% +2OKC 95% → 96%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 93%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -19.5
- ML OKC -2400 / BKN +1200
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 94%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -16.5
- OKC 93%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- OKC: Elo 93.4%, market 92.6%
- Fair odds
- OKC -1248
- BKN +1248 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 118.0 – 98.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1727 | 1305 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +56 | −58 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +460 Elo | OKC 93.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 93.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 93.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 92.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30118.4 | Points scored | 106.630th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.7 | Points allowed | 115.616th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+10.7 | Margin | −9.028th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 107.630th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.7 | Defense rating | 116.827th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.9 | Pace | 98.527th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 2–823rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3025–8 | Road vs home | 9–2430th of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15103rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301727 | Elo rating | 130529th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–37 | 31–37 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–36 | 4–1 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 27–36 |
| Overs–unders | 35–34 | 31–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 4–1 BKN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.