Oklahoma City Thunder at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints40
- Isaiah HartensteinAssists8
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds12
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints32
- Jalen SuggsAssists6
- Paolo BancheroRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–108
- Q40.0(00:00) [Thunder] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)113–108
- Q40.0Desmond Bane makes 22-foot three point jumper113–108
- Q42.4Desmond Bane offensive rebound113–105
- Q42.4Tristan da Silva misses 26-foot three point jumper113–105
- Q45.5Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lost ball turnover (Jamal Cain steals)113–105
- Q49.2Tristan da Silva makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)113–105
- Q415.4Chet Holmgren makes free throw 1 of 1113–102
- Q415.4Tristan da Silva shooting foul112–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:01Jaylin Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)OKC 73 – 77 ORL · OKC 43% → 54% +11OKC 43% → 54%+11 pts
- Q49:10Jamal Cain makes 24-foot running jump shot (Jett Howard assists)OKC 89 – 87 ORL · ORL 17% → 28% +11ORL 17% → 28%+11 pts
- Q48:21Desmond Bane makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jevon Carter assists)OKC 89 – 90 ORL · ORL 28% → 42% +14ORL 28% → 42%+14 pts
- Q43:55Desmond Bane makes driving layup (Jalen Suggs assists)OKC 97 – 95 ORL · ORL 17% → 28% +11ORL 17% → 28%+11 pts
- Q43:11Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotOKC 102 – 96 ORL · OKC 79% → 92% +13OKC 79% → 92%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -9.5
- ML OKC -455 / ORL +350
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -7.5
- OKC 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- OKC: Elo 76.7%, market 78.7%
- Fair odds
- OKC -369
- ORL +369 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 117.0 – 107.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1724 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +35 | +15 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +207 Elo | OKC 76.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 76.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 76.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 78.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30118.5 | Points scored | 115.614th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.7 | Points allowed | 114.211th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+10.8 | Margin | +1.413th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.3 | Offense rating | 112.817th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.7 | Defense rating | 111.49th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.9 | Pace | 101.515th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 1st of 3024–8 | Road vs home | 21–119th of 30 |
| 25th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 1st of 301724 | Elo rating | 153015th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–36 | 30–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–35 | 18–25 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders | 35–33 | 36–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 5–0 ORL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.