Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Moses MoodyPoints23
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists6
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds10
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints32
- Cooper FlaggAssists9
- Daniel GaffordRebounds7
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game137–131
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime137–131
- OT4.2Naji Marshall bad pass
turnover (Gary Payton II steals)137–131
- OT7.1Mavericks Full timeout137–131
- OT7.1Draymond Green makes free throw 2 of 2137–131
- OT7.1Warriors offensive team rebound136–131
- OT7.1Draymond Green misses free throw 1 of 2136–131
- OT7.1Klay Thompson personal take foul136–131
- OT23.3Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound136–131
- OT26.4Max Christie misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot136–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:14Klay Thompson makes 26-foot three pointer (Ryan Nembhard assists)GS 93 – 96 DAL · DAL 47% → 59% +12DAL 47% → 59%+12 pts
- Q45:49Gary Payton II makes 22-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 118 – 112 DAL · GS 69% → 83% +14GS 69% → 83%+14 pts
- Q42:49Cooper Flagg makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (Daniel Gafford assists)GS 124 – 121 DAL · DAL 13% → 25% +12DAL 13% → 25%+12 pts
- Q41:16Max Christie makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)GS 126 – 126 DAL · DAL 16% → 49% +33DAL 16% → 49%+33 pts
- OT4:13Moses Moody makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 131 – 126 DAL · GS 65% → 82% +17GS 65% → 82%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- GS -3.5
- ML GS -135 / DAL +114
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1.5
- GS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- GS: Elo 55.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- GS -123
- DAL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 117.0 – 113.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1372 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −35 | +1 | GS: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +39 Elo | GS 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 56.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30114.7 | Points scored | 113.524th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 118.723rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −5.224th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 108.927th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 113.918th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.3 | Pace | 103.36th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 20th of 3014–23 | Road vs home | 14–2224th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 150312th of 30 |
| 19th of 301483 | Elo rating | 137226th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–40 | 31–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–24 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | 11–16 | 23–26 |
| Overs–unders | 43–28 | 31–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 4–6 DAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
- Jan 22GS 115 @ DAL 123Picked GS 69%Miss
- Dec 25DAL 116 @ GS 126Picked GS 73%Hit
- Feb 23DAL 102 @ GS 126Picked GS 76%Hit
- Feb 12GS 107 @ DAL 111Picked GS 73%Miss
- Dec 15DAL 143 @ GS 133Picked GS 50%Miss
- Nov 12DAL 117 @ GS 120Picked GS 55%Hit
- Apr 5GS 106 @ DAL 108Picked GS 56%Miss
- Apr 2DAL 100 @ GS 104Picked DAL 53%Miss