LA Clippers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Darius GarlandPoints41
- Darius GarlandAssists11
- Brook LopezRebounds9
Mavericks- Naji MarshallPoints28
- Ryan NembhardAssists9
- Daniel GaffordRebounds13
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game138–131
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime138–131
- OT19.1(00:19.1) [Clippers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)138–131
- OT19.1Naji Marshall makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Cooper Flagg assists)138–131
- OT22.7Cooper Flagg defensive rebound138–128
- OT24.6Kawhi Leonard misses 18-foot pullup jump shot138–128
- OT47.5Clippers defensive team rebound138–128
- OT49.0Naji Marshall misses 24-foot three point jumper138–128
- OT1:03Kawhi Leonard makes 8-foot two point shot138–128
- OT1:22Naji Marshall makes driving layup136–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q433.1Naji Marshall makes layup (Cooper Flagg assists)LAC 120 – 120 DAL · DAL 15% → 48% +33DAL 15% → 48%+33 pts
- Q423.6P.J. Washington makes 1-foot running dunk (Naji Marshall assists)LAC 120 – 122 DAL · DAL 48% → 87% +38DAL 48% → 87%+38 pts
- Q419.1Kawhi Leonard makes driving layup (Kris Dunn assists)LAC 122 – 122 DAL · LAC 11% → 52% +41LAC 11% → 52%+41 pts
- OT4:20Derrick Jones Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 125 – 124 DAL · LAC 43% → 63% +20LAC 43% → 63%+20 pts
- OT3:46Darius Garland makes 25-foot three pointer (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 128 – 124 DAL · LAC 63% → 81% +18LAC 63% → 81%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -7.5
- ML LAC -270 / DAL +220
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -6
- LAC 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- LAC: Elo 72.7%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- LAC -234
- DAL +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 120.5 – 113.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1376 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | −8 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +170 Elo | LAC 72.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 71.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 71.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30113.2 | Points scored | 113.323rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 118.523rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −5.224th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.7 | Offense rating | 108.726th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 113.718th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.2 | Pace | 103.45th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–824th of 30 |
| 19th of 3015–21 | Road vs home | 14–2124th of 30 |
| 13th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150312th of 30 |
| 11th of 301560 | Elo rating | 137624th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–33 | 30–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–20 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | 22–13 | 22–26 |
| Overs–unders | 36–34 | 30–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 8–7 DAL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.
- Nov 29DAL 114 @ LAC 110Picked LAC 78%Miss
- Nov 14LAC 133 @ DAL 127Picked LAC 61%Hit
- Apr 5DAL 104 @ LAC 135Picked LAC 77%Hit
- Apr 4DAL 91 @ LAC 114Picked LAC 84%Hit
- Dec 21LAC 97 @ DAL 113Picked DAL 59%Hit
- Dec 19LAC 118 @ DAL 95Picked DAL 52%Miss
- May 3LAC 101 @ DAL 114PlayoffsPicked DAL 70%Hit
- May 1DAL 123 @ LAC 93PlayoffsPicked DAL 56%Hit