LA Clippers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints25
- Darius GarlandAssists6
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds8
Pelicans- Saddiq BeyPoints25
- Dejounte MurrayAssists11
- Karlo MatkovicRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–124
- Q43.2shot clock turnover109–124
- Q427.9Isaiah Jackson bad pass
turnover (Herbert Jones steals)109–124
- Q430.0Isaiah Jackson defensive rebound109–124
- Q432.8Herbert Jones misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot109–124
- Q454.0Karlo Matkovic defensive rebound109–124
- Q456.0Kobe Sanders misses layup109–124
- Q41:15Dejounte Murray makes 26-foot three pointer109–124
- Q41:38Cam Christie makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Kobe Sanders assists)109–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:28Saddiq Bey makes 24-foot running jump shot (Dejounte Murray assists)LAC 71 – 76 NO · NO 54% → 64% +10NO 54% → 64%+10 pts
- Q34:38Saddiq Bey makes 23-foot running jump shot (Herbert Jones assists)LAC 74 – 81 NO · NO 61% → 71% +10NO 61% → 71%+10 pts
- Q33:25Kobe Sanders makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jordan Miller assists)LAC 79 – 83 NO · LAC 28% → 38% +10LAC 28% → 38%+10 pts
- Q33:09Derik Queen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Saddiq Bey assists)LAC 79 – 86 NO · NO 62% → 72% +10NO 62% → 72%+10 pts
- Q32:31Trey Murphy III makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Saddiq Bey assists)LAC 81 – 89 NO · NO 66% → 76% +10NO 66% → 76%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -2.5
- ML LAC -130 / NO +110
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -3
- LAC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.3 pts
- LAC: Elo 62.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- LAC -119
- NO +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 119.5 – 117.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1585 | 1411 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +35 | +60 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +89 Elo | LAC 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 57.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.5 | Points scored | 115.614th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 119.725th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −4.123rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.9 | Offense rating | 112.121st of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 116.124th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.3 | Pace | 102.410th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 18th of 3015–19 | Road vs home | 14–2124th of 30 |
| 10th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 8th of 301585 | Elo rating | 141121st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–31 | 39–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 15–19 | 11–3 |
| Underdog | 22–12 | 28–27 |
| Overs–unders | 36–32 | 35–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 5–4 NO in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Mar 1NO 117 @ LAC 137Picked LAC 74%Hit
- Oct 31NO 124 @ LAC 126Picked LAC 82%Hit
- Apr 2NO 98 @ LAC 114Picked LAC 91%Hit
- Mar 11LAC 120 @ NO 127Picked LAC 72%Miss
- Dec 30LAC 116 @ NO 113Picked LAC 62%Hit
- Mar 15LAC 104 @ NO 112Picked NO 67%Hit
- Feb 7NO 117 @ LAC 106Picked LAC 66%Miss
- Jan 5LAC 111 @ NO 95Picked NO 55%Miss