LA Clippers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Derrick Jones Jr.Points22
- Jordan MillerAssists5
- John CollinsRebounds8
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints27
- Saddiq BeyAssists6
- Yves MissiRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–105
- Q48.0Saddiq Bey defensive rebound99–105
- Q411.1Brook Lopez misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot99–105
- Q415.8Brook Lopez enters the game for Isaiah Jackson99–105
- Q420.8Karlo Matkovic bad pass
turnover (Kris Dunn steals)99–105
- Q424.0Pelicans Full timeout99–105
- Q428.7Isaiah Jackson enters the game for Brook Lopez99–105
- Q428.7Pelicans Full timeout99–105
- Q428.7Bogdan Bogdanovic makes driving layup99–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:29Jordan Poole makes 23-foot three point jumper (Herbert Jones assists)LAC 81 – 82 NO · NO 47% → 59% +12NO 47% → 59%+12 pts
- Q46:32Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 92 – 89 NO · LAC 46% → 63% +17LAC 46% → 63%+17 pts
- Q45:34Zion Williamson makes two point shotLAC 94 – 93 NO · NO 35% → 47% +12NO 35% → 47%+12 pts
- Q45:13Trey Murphy III makes 27-foot three point jumper (Saddiq Bey assists)LAC 94 – 96 NO · NO 47% → 66% +18NO 47% → 66%+18 pts
- Q44:14Trey Murphy III makes 24-foot three point jumper (Saddiq Bey assists)LAC 94 – 100 NO · NO 73% → 87% +14NO 73% → 87%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- NO -4.5
- ML LAC +140 / NO -166
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -1
- NO 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- NO: Elo 54.9%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- NO -150
- LAC +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 112.0 – 116.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | NO and LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −91 | +45 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +34 Elo | NO 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 57.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.4 | Points scored | 115.814th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 119.625th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −3.822nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 112.419th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.3 | Defense rating | 116.124th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.3 | Pace | 102.311th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 19th of 3015–20 | Road vs home | 15–2123rd of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 10th of 301567 | Elo rating | 142921st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−91 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–32 | 40–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 15–20 | 11–3 |
| Underdog | 22–12 | 29–27 |
| Overs–unders | 36–33 | 35–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 5–5 NO in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.
- Mar 18LAC 109 @ NO 124Picked LAC 54%Miss
- Mar 1NO 117 @ LAC 137Picked LAC 74%Hit
- Oct 31NO 124 @ LAC 126Picked LAC 82%Hit
- Apr 2NO 98 @ LAC 114Picked LAC 91%Hit
- Mar 11LAC 120 @ NO 127Picked LAC 72%Miss
- Dec 30LAC 116 @ NO 113Picked LAC 62%Hit
- Mar 15LAC 104 @ NO 112Picked NO 67%Hit
- Feb 7NO 117 @ LAC 106Picked LAC 66%Miss