Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Kyle FilipowskiPoints25
- Cody WilliamsAssists7
- Oscar TshiebweRebounds9
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints33
- Jamal MurrayAssists14
- Nikola JokicRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–135
- Q413.1Jamal Murray defensive rebound129–135
- Q416.1Ace Bailey misses 34-foot three point jumper129–135
- Q417.9Jazz Full timeout129–135
- Q418.7Jamal Murray makes 27-foot three point jumper129–135
- Q431.2Elijah Harkless lost ball turnover (Jamal Murray steals)129–132
- Q445.9Cameron Johnson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)129–132
- Q447.7Nikola Jokic offensive rebound129–129
- Q450.9Tim Hardaway Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper129–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:55Nikola Jokic makes 9-foot turnaround jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)UTAH 126 – 123 DEN · DEN 24% → 39% +15DEN 24% → 39%+15 pts
- Q42:20Cameron Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)UTAH 126 – 126 DEN · DEN 34% → 62% +28DEN 34% → 62%+28 pts
- Q41:15Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Nikola Jokic assists)UTAH 126 – 129 DEN · DEN 59% → 88% +29DEN 59% → 88%+29 pts
- Q41:07Elijah Harkless makes 26-foot three pointerUTAH 129 – 129 DEN · UTAH 11% → 42% +31UTAH 11% → 42%+31 pts
- Q445.9Cameron Johnson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)UTAH 129 – 132 DEN · DEN 57% → 92% +35DEN 57% → 92%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 92%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -19.5
- ML UTAH +1100 / DEN -2100
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 95%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -15
- DEN 92%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- DEN: Elo 92.1%, market 92.0%
- Fair odds
- DEN -1145
- UTAH +1145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 114.0 – 133.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 247.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1277 | 1606 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −6 | +56 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +426 Elo | DEN 92.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 95.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 94.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 92.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 121.11st of 30 |
| 30th of 30125.2 | Points allowed | 116.720th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.8 | Margin | +4.47th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 119.71st of 30 |
| 30th of 30119.5 | Defense rating | 115.322nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.8 | Pace | 100.122nd of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–27 | Road vs home | 22–1310th of 30 |
| 9th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149621st of 30 |
| 30th of 301277 | Elo rating | 16068th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–36 | 40–34 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–3 | 24–27 |
| Underdog | 32–33 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 43–30 | 45–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–9 DEN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.
- Mar 2DEN 128 @ UTAH 125Picked DEN 82%Hit
- Dec 22UTAH 112 @ DEN 135Picked DEN 84%Hit
- Mar 28UTAH 93 @ DEN 129Picked DEN 91%Hit
- Dec 30DEN 132 @ UTAH 121Picked DEN 72%Hit
- Nov 27DEN 122 @ UTAH 103Picked DEN 81%Hit
- Nov 2UTAH 103 @ DEN 129Picked DEN 81%Hit
- Apr 9DEN 111 @ UTAH 95Picked DEN 82%Hit
- Mar 9UTAH 121 @ DEN 142Picked DEN 73%Hit