Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints26
- Cooper FlaggAssists7
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds15
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints53
- Nikola JokicAssists19
- Nikola JokicRebounds21
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game135–142
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter135–142
- Q411.4Nuggets defensive team rebound135–142
- Q412.6Naji Marshall misses two point shot135–142
- Q420.2Cooper Flagg defensive rebound135–142
- Q422.1Bruce Brown misses free throw 2 of 2135–142
- Q422.1Bruce Brown makes free throw 1 of 2135–142
- Q422.1Dwight Powell enters the game for P.J. Washington135–141
- Q422.1P.J. Washington personal take foul135–141
- Q430.0Nuggets Full timeout135–141
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:25Bruce Brown makes 22-foot three point jumper (Peyton Watson assists)DAL 92 – 98 DEN · DEN 79% → 86% +7DEN 79% → 86%+7 pts
- Q44:52P.J. Washington makes tip in dunkDAL 123 – 127 DEN · DAL 10% → 17% +7DAL 10% → 17%+7 pts
- Q44:20Max Christie makes 23-foot three pointer (Brandon Williams assists)DAL 126 – 127 DEN · DAL 16% → 32% +16DAL 16% → 32%+16 pts
- Q43:47Nikola Jokic makes 8-foot floating jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)DAL 126 – 130 DEN · DEN 74% → 84% +11DEN 74% → 84%+11 pts
- Q43:17Peyton Watson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DAL 126 – 133 DEN · DEN 85% → 95% +10DEN 85% → 95%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -10.5
- ML DAL +470 / DEN -650
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -9.5
- DEN 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- DEN: Elo 82.6%, market 83.2%
- Fair odds
- DEN -494
- DAL +494 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 118.0 – 128.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 246.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1365 | 1603 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −5 | +31 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +271 Elo | DEN 82.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 85.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 85.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 83.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.8 | Points scored | 120.91st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30119.0 | Points allowed | 116.518th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.2 | Margin | +4.47th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.0 | Offense rating | 119.41st of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 115.122nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.3 | Pace | 100.022nd of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 24th of 309–25 | Road vs home | 21–1311th of 30 |
| 15th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 26th of 301365 | Elo rating | 16036th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–41 | 40–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–14 | 24–26 |
| Underdog | 23–27 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 32–40 | 44–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–6 DEN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Jan 14DEN 118 @ DAL 109Picked DAL 51%Miss
- Dec 23DEN 130 @ DAL 131Picked DEN 68%Miss
- Dec 1DAL 131 @ DEN 121Picked DEN 81%Miss
- Jan 14DEN 118 @ DAL 99Picked DEN 55%Hit
- Jan 12DEN 112 @ DAL 101Picked DEN 67%Hit
- Nov 22DAL 123 @ DEN 120Picked DEN 64%Miss
- Nov 10DAL 120 @ DEN 122Picked DEN 54%Hit
- Mar 17DEN 105 @ DAL 107Picked DAL 54%Hit