Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints23
- Nikola JokicAssists17
- Nikola JokicRebounds17
Suns- Devin BookerPoints22
- Devin BookerAssists8
- Jordan GoodwinRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–123
- Q41.9Royce O'Neale offensive rebound125–123
- Q41.9Devin Booker misses 25-foot three point jumper125–123
- Q411.5Bruce Brown enters the game for Jamal Murray125–123
- Q411.5Christian Braun enters the game for Cameron Johnson125–123
- Q411.5Grayson Allen enters the game for Jordan Goodwin125–123
- Q411.5Collin Gillespie enters the game for Oso Ighodaro125–123
- Q411.5Suns Full timeout125–123
- Q411.8Nikola Jokic makes 11-foot floating jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)125–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:46Jamal Murray makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshotDEN 108 – 106 PHX · DEN 52% → 67% +15DEN 52% → 67%+15 pts
- Q454.1Jalen Green makes 4-foot two point shot (Devin Booker assists)DEN 121 – 121 PHX · PHX 21% → 48% +27PHX 21% → 48%+27 pts
- Q435.4Jamal Murray makes 15-foot fade away jump shotDEN 123 – 121 PHX · DEN 52% → 84% +32DEN 52% → 84%+32 pts
- Q430.2Devin Booker makes 10-foot pullup jump shotDEN 123 – 123 PHX · PHX 14% → 48% +34PHX 14% → 48%+34 pts
- Q411.8Nikola Jokic makes 11-foot floating jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 125 – 123 PHX · DEN 51% → 95% +44DEN 51% → 95%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -5.5
- ML DEN -225 / PHX +185
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2.5
- DEN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- DEN: Elo 59.7%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- DEN -197
- PHX +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 119.5 – 114.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1599 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +67 | +36 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +68 Elo | DEN 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 69.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 68.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30120.8 | Points scored | 112.226th of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.4 | Points allowed | 111.06th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.4 | Margin | +1.315th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.3 | Offense rating | 112.917th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 111.610th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.1 | Pace | 98.926th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 7th of 3023–15 | Road vs home | 23–1410th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15114th of 30 |
| 7th of 301599 | Elo rating | 152715th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–32 | 43–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–25 | 21–13 |
| Underdog | 16–7 | 22–16 |
| Overs–unders | 43–29 | 30–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 6–3 PHX in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Nov 29DEN 130 @ PHX 112Picked DEN 61%Hit
- Oct 25PHX 111 @ DEN 133Picked DEN 85%Hit
- Mar 7PHX 141 @ DEN 149Picked DEN 76%Hit
- Feb 8DEN 122 @ PHX 105Picked DEN 69%Hit
- Dec 25DEN 100 @ PHX 110Picked DEN 55%Miss
- Dec 23PHX 90 @ DEN 117Picked DEN 64%Hit
- Mar 27PHX 104 @ DEN 97Picked DEN 62%Miss
- Mar 5PHX 117 @ DEN 107Picked DEN 67%Miss