Toronto Raptors at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints17
- Scottie BarnesAssists6
- Scottie BarnesRebounds5
Suns- Devin BookerPoints25
- Jalen GreenAssists7
- Jordan GoodwinRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–120
- Q412.4shot clock turnover98–120
- Q436.4Jonathan Mogbo makes free throw 2 of 298–120
- Q436.4Raptors offensive team rebound97–120
- Q436.4Jonathan Mogbo misses free throw 1 of 297–120
- Q436.4Koby Brea shooting foul97–120
- Q441.8Jamaree Bouyea bad pass
turnover (Trayce Jackson-Davis steals)97–120
- Q451.1Rasheer Fleming offensive rebound97–120
- Q454.6Koby Brea misses 25-foot three point jumper97–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:41Ja'Kobe Walter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)TOR 10 – 16 PHX · TOR 41% → 48% +7TOR 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q15:21Khaman Maluach makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)TOR 10 – 19 PHX · PHX 52% → 59% +7PHX 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q28:36Ja'Kobe Walter makes 26-foot three point jumperTOR 34 – 43 PHX · TOR 30% → 37% +7TOR 30% → 37%+7 pts
- Q27:45Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 37 – 43 PHX · TOR 37% → 44% +7TOR 37% → 44%+7 pts
- Q27:21Jordan Goodwin makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)TOR 37 – 46 PHX · PHX 56% → 63% +7PHX 56% → 63%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -4.5
- ML TOR -180 / PHX +150
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -0.5
- TOR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 52.0%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -161
- PHX +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 112.0 – 107.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +42 | +27 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +14 Elo | TOR 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.0 | Points scored | 112.126th of 30 |
| 8th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 111.26th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +1.016th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 112.716th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 111.711th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.2 | Pace | 99.026th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 8th of 3020–14 | Road vs home | 22–1413th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15115th of 30 |
| 18th of 301503 | Elo rating | 150817th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–33 | 42–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–21 | 21–13 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders | 27–42 | 30–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–2 PHX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.