Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Ryan RollinsPoints26
- Ryan RollinsAssists7
- Jericho SimsRebounds11
Suns- Jalen GreenPoints24
- Devin BookerAssists7
- Ryan DunnRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–105
- Q41.2Pete Nance defensive rebound108–105
- Q44.5Jordan Goodwin misses free throw 2 of 2108–105
- Q44.5Myles Turner enters the game for Gary Trent Jr.108–105
- Q44.5Khaman Maluach enters the game for Isaiah Livers108–105
- Q44.5Oso Ighodaro enters the game for Jalen Green108–105
- Q44.5Jordan Goodwin makes free throw 1 of 2108–105
- Q44.5Ryan Rollins shooting foul108–104
- Q44.5Jordan Goodwin offensive rebound108–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:31Gary Trent Jr. makes 26-foot three pointer (Ryan Rollins assists)MIL 95 – 95 PHX · MIL 21% → 39% +17MIL 21% → 39%+17 pts
- Q42:13Devin Booker makes 27-foot three pointerMIL 102 – 100 PHX · PHX 16% → 39% +23PHX 16% → 39%+23 pts
- Q41:16Myles Turner makes 22-foot three point jumper (Pete Nance assists)MIL 105 – 101 PHX · MIL 57% → 87% +30MIL 57% → 87%+30 pts
- Q41:08Jordan Goodwin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)MIL 105 – 104 PHX · PHX 11% → 42% +31PHX 11% → 42%+31 pts
- Q423.8Ryan Rollins makes 11-foot driving floating jump shotMIL 107 – 104 PHX · MIL 69% → 95% +26MIL 69% → 95%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -11.5
- ML MIL +440 / PHX -600
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -11
- PHX 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- PHX: Elo 86.0%, market 82.2%
- Fair odds
- PHX -463
- MIL +463 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 103.5 – 115.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1381 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −106 | +32 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +315 Elo | PHX 86.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 78.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 79.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 82.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30111.0 | Points scored | 112.226th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.4 | Points allowed | 111.26th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.3 | Margin | +1.015th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 112.716th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.7 | Defense rating | 111.711th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.3 | Pace | 99.026th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–22 | Road vs home | 22–1310th of 30 |
| 20th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15123rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301381 | Elo rating | 152115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−106 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–39 | 42–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–17 | 21–12 |
| Underdog | 21–22 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders | 30–39 | 30–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–3 PHX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.