Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Evan MobleyPoints27
- James HardenAssists6
- Evan MobleyRebounds15
Bucks- Kevin Porter Jr.Points25
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists10
- Bobby PortisRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–116
- Q411.9Max Strus defensive rebound123–116
- Q414.0Kevin Porter Jr. misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot123–116
- Q420.9James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2123–116
- Q420.9James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2122–116
- Q420.9Kevin Porter Jr. personal take foul121–116
- Q429.1Cavaliers offensive team rebound121–116
- Q429.1Donovan Mitchell misses technical free throw121–116
- Q429.1excess timeout technical foul121–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q30.4Keon Ellis makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)CLE 85 – 87 MIL · CLE 48% → 60% +12CLE 48% → 60%+12 pts
- Q48:52Donovan Mitchell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)CLE 94 – 93 MIL · CLE 56% → 70% +14CLE 56% → 70%+14 pts
- Q47:51Dean Wade makes 26-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)CLE 97 – 95 MIL · CLE 60% → 74% +14CLE 60% → 74%+14 pts
- Q47:06Pete Nance makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)CLE 100 – 100 MIL · MIL 22% → 36% +14MIL 22% → 36%+14 pts
- Q46:55Sam Merrill makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dean Wade assists)CLE 103 – 100 MIL · CLE 64% → 78% +14CLE 64% → 78%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -12.5
- ML CLE -625 / MIL +455
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -8
- CLE 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 79.1%, market 82.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -478
- MIL +478 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 119.5 – 107.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1607 | 1408 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | −79 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +231 Elo | CLE 79.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 78.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 78.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 82.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.1 | Points scored | 111.228th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.9 | Points allowed | 116.118th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.2 | Margin | −4.924th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.3 | Offense rating | 111.422nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 116.325th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.8 | Pace | 99.325th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–824th of 30 |
| 8th of 3019–14 | Road vs home | 16–1821st of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 5th of 301607 | Elo rating | 140822nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−79 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–40 | 29–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 20–35 | 9–16 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 20–22 |
| Overs–unders | 33–35 | 29–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 8–3 MIL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Feb 25CLE 116 @ MIL 118Picked CLE 58%Miss
- Nov 17MIL 106 @ CLE 118Picked CLE 68%Hit
- Oct 26MIL 113 @ CLE 118Picked CLE 68%Hit
- Mar 9CLE 112 @ MIL 100Picked CLE 70%Hit
- Dec 20MIL 101 @ CLE 124Picked CLE 76%Hit
- Nov 4MIL 114 @ CLE 116Picked CLE 76%Hit
- Nov 2CLE 114 @ MIL 113Picked MIL 54%Miss
- Jan 26CLE 112 @ MIL 100Picked MIL 53%Miss