Milwaukee Bucks at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Ryan RollinsPoints15
- Ryan RollinsAssists5
- Bobby PortisRebounds6
Jazz- Ace BaileyPoints33
- Elijah HarklessAssists10
- Andersson GarciaRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–128
- Q45.9Blake Hinson defensive rebound96–128
- Q48.8Andre Jackson Jr. misses two point shot96–128
- Q418.7shot clock turnover96–128
- Q443.2Gary Harris makes 25-foot three pointer (Thanasis Antetokounmpo assists)96–128
- Q41:03Bez Mbeng out of bounds bad pass turnover93–128
- Q41:09Andre Jackson Jr. makes running layup93–128
- Q41:14Andersson Garcia lost ball turnover (Gary Harris steals)91–128
- Q41:28Gary Harris bad pass
turnover (Andersson Garcia steals)91–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:36Taurean Prince makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)MIL 26 – 33 UTAH · MIL 42% → 49% +7MIL 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q29:44Kyle Filipowski makes 25-foot three pointerMIL 28 – 36 UTAH · UTAH 46% → 54% +7UTAH 46% → 54%+7 pts
- Q28:54Cam Thomas makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotMIL 31 – 36 UTAH · MIL 46% → 53% +8MIL 46% → 53%+8 pts
- Q26:51Ousmane Dieng makes 28-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)MIL 35 – 40 UTAH · MIL 45% → 52% +8MIL 45% → 52%+8 pts
- Q25:38Ryan Rollins makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotMIL 40 – 44 UTAH · MIL 47% → 55% +8MIL 47% → 55%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -5.5
- ML MIL -250 / UTAH +205
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -1
- MIL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 53.1%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- MIL -218
- UTAH +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 116.5 – 111.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1405 | 1304 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −85 | −1 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +21 Elo | MIL 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 63.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30111.3 | Points scored | 117.210th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.2 | Points allowed | 125.230th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.0 | Margin | −8.026th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 112.021st of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.5 | Defense rating | 119.730th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.3 | Pace | 103.73rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–823rd of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–21 | Road vs home | 12–2226th of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15094th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301405 | Elo rating | 130428th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−85 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–38 | 36–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–16 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 21–22 | 31–31 |
| Overs–unders | 30–38 | 40–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–2 UTAH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.