Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Collin GillespiePoints24
- Oso IghodaroAssists7
- Jalen GreenRebounds8
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints34
- Dylan HarperAssists5
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–101
- Q41.1Victor Wembanyama makes 17-foot pullup jump shot100–101
- Q410.8Ryan Dunn enters the game for Rasheer Fleming100–99
- Q410.8De'Aaron Fox enters the game for Luke Kornet100–99
- Q410.8Spurs Full timeout100–99
- Q410.9Luke Kornet defensive rebound100–99
- Q411.1Oso Ighodaro enters the game for Jalen Green100–99
- Q411.1Julian Champagnie enters the game for Carter Bryant100–99
- Q411.1Luke Kornet enters the game for De'Aaron Fox100–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:28Victor Wembanyama makes 25-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)PHX 95 – 91 SA · SA 13% → 29% +16SA 13% → 29%+16 pts
- Q42:14Oso Ighodaro makes 10-foot floating jump shot (Collin Gillespie assists)PHX 97 – 93 SA · PHX 62% → 79% +16PHX 62% → 79%+16 pts
- Q41:13Jordan Goodwin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 100 – 95 SA · PHX 70% → 93% +23PHX 70% → 93%+23 pts
- Q426.6De'Aaron Fox makes 1-foot two point shotPHX 100 – 99 SA · SA 6% → 32% +26SA 6% → 32%+26 pts
- Q41.1Victor Wembanyama makes 17-foot pullup jump shotPHX 100 – 101 SA · SA <1% → >99% +99SA <1% → >99%+99 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- SA -9.5
- ML PHX +360 / SA -470
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -5.5
- SA 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- SA: Elo 70.9%, market 79.1%
- Fair odds
- SA -379
- PHX +379 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 109.5 – 119.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1659 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +30 | +38 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | SA crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +155 Elo | SA 70.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 71.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 71.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 79.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.4 | Points scored | 118.94th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.4 | Points allowed | 111.98th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +7.04th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 116.64th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 109.73rd of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.1 | Pace | 101.812th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 15th of 3017–17 | Road vs home | 26–72nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 15087th of 30 |
| 15th of 301523 | Elo rating | 16593rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–28 | 41–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–12 | 28–23 |
| Underdog | 20–16 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 30–39 | 30–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 5–5 SA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.
- Feb 19PHX 94 @ SA 121Picked SA 71%Hit
- Nov 23SA 102 @ PHX 111Picked PHX 52%Hit
- Nov 2SA 118 @ PHX 130Picked SA 67%Miss
- Apr 11SA 98 @ PHX 117Picked PHX 67%Hit
- Feb 20PHX 109 @ SA 120Picked PHX 57%Miss
- Dec 3SA 93 @ PHX 104Picked PHX 71%Hit
- Mar 25PHX 102 @ SA 104Picked PHX 74%Miss
- Mar 23PHX 131 @ SA 106Picked PHX 69%Hit