Washington Wizards at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Julian ReesePoints26
- Sharife CooperAssists6
- Julian ReeseRebounds17
Jazz- Cody WilliamsPoints24
- Kennedy ChandlerAssists8
- John KoncharRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–110
- Q411.7shot clock turnover133–110
- Q436.0Cody Williams makes driving layup133–110
- Q452.6Julian Reese makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Sharife Cooper assists)133–108
- Q41:06Sharife Cooper defensive rebound131–108
- Q41:09Cody Williams misses driving dunk131–108
- Q41:20Sharife Cooper makes driving layup131–108
- Q41:33Bez Mbeng makes driving layup (Kennedy Chandler assists)129–108
- Q41:43Leaky Black makes 24-foot running jump shot (Sharife Cooper assists)129–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:34Ace Bailey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Elijah Harkless assists)WSH 4 – 3 UTAH · UTAH 50% → 56% +6UTAH 50% → 56%+6 pts
- Q18:07Will Riley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Leaky Black assists)WSH 11 – 5 UTAH · WSH 48% → 55% +6WSH 48% → 55%+6 pts
- Q12:11Jaden Hardy makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Gill assists)WSH 29 – 17 UTAH · WSH 63% → 70% +6WSH 63% → 70%+6 pts
- Q29:04Leaky Black makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bub Carrington assists)WSH 42 – 26 UTAH · WSH 74% → 80% +6WSH 74% → 80%+6 pts
- Q28:20Jaden Hardy makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sharife Cooper assists)WSH 45 – 30 UTAH · WSH 72% → 78% +6WSH 72% → 78%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jazz 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH -3.5
- ML WSH +130 / UTAH -155
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -5
- UTAH 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.6 pts
- UTAH: Elo 68.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -140
- WSH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 118.0 – 121.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1253 | 1305 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −34 | +16 | WSH: Missing Alex Sarr −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +138 Elo | UTAH 68.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 59.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30112.5 | Points scored | 117.49th of 30 |
| 29th of 30124.1 | Points allowed | 125.130th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.6 | Margin | −7.626th of 30 |
| 29th of 30108.6 | Offense rating | 112.221st of 30 |
| 30th of 30119.8 | Defense rating | 119.529th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.2 | Pace | 103.73rd of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 30th of 305–29 | Road vs home | 13–2426th of 30 |
| 1st of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 15086th of 30 |
| 30th of 301253 | Elo rating | 130528th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−34 Elo- Alex Sarr left toe−5 Elo
Jazz
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–41 | 37–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 28–38 | 32–33 |
| Overs–unders | 40–31 | 42–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–4 UTAH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.