Washington Wizards at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jaden HardyPoints25
- Bub CarringtonAssists8
- Jamir WatkinsRebounds6
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints26
- Jose AlvaradoAssists8
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–145
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–145
- Q47.7Tyler Kolek defensive rebound113–145
- Q411.2Jaden Hardy misses 25-foot running jump shot113–145
- Q416.0Ariel Hukporti bad pass
turnover (Bub Carrington steals)113–145
- Q417.7Ariel Hukporti offensive rebound113–145
- Q420.8Dillon Jones misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot113–145
- Q430.6Jeremy Sochan offensive rebound113–145
- Q433.1Pacome Dadiet misses 24-foot three point jumper113–145
- Q453.7Bub Carrington makes free throw 2 of 2113–145
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:51Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three pointerWSH 9 – 13 NY · NY 94% → 96% +2NY 94% → 96%+2 pts
- Q210:13Jordan Clarkson makes 11-foot driving floating jump shotWSH 33 – 36 NY · NY 91% → 93% +2NY 91% → 93%+2 pts
- Q29:05Sharife Cooper makes 25-foot three point jumper (Will Riley assists)WSH 38 – 38 NY · WSH 7% → 10% +3WSH 7% → 10%+3 pts
- Q28:51Mikal Bridges makes 12-foot fade away jump shot (Jose Alvarado assists)WSH 38 – 40 NY · NY 90% → 92% +2NY 90% → 92%+2 pts
- Q28:10Karl-Anthony Towns makes layup (Jose Alvarado assists)WSH 38 – 42 NY · NY 92% → 94% +2NY 92% → 94%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 94%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- NY -22.5
- ML WSH +1500 / NY -3600
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 96%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -19.5
- NY 96%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- NY: Elo 95.8%, market 94.0%
- Fair odds
- NY -1557
- WSH +1557 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 103.5 – 126.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1254 | 1652 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −35 | +35 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +544 Elo | NY 95.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 96.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 95.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 94.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30112.5 | Points scored | 116.910th of 30 |
| 29th of 30123.8 | Points allowed | 110.45th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.3 | Margin | +6.55th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.5 | Offense rating | 117.03rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30119.4 | Defense rating | 110.55th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.2 | Pace | 99.324th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 29th of 305–28 | Road vs home | 25–94th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 149026th of 30 |
| 30th of 301254 | Elo rating | 16524th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–40 | 37–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 30–29 |
| Underdog | 28–37 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 39–31 | 35–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–9 NY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 9.
- Feb 3NY 132 @ WSH 101Picked NY 83%Hit
- Nov 3WSH 102 @ NY 119Picked NY 84%Hit
- Mar 22WSH 103 @ NY 122Picked NY 89%Hit
- Dec 30NY 126 @ WSH 106Picked NY 85%Hit
- Dec 28NY 136 @ WSH 132Picked NY 86%Hit
- Nov 18WSH 106 @ NY 134Picked NY 86%Hit
- Jan 18WSH 109 @ NY 113Picked NY 77%Hit
- Jan 6NY 121 @ WSH 105Picked NY 69%Hit