Oklahoma City Thunder at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints40
- Isaiah HartensteinAssists10
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds20
Wizards- Bilal CoulibalyPoints21
- Alex SarrAssists8
- Tristan VukcevicRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–111
- Q413.9Anthony Gill makes driving layup (Bilal Coulibaly assists)132–111
- Q439.1Wizards defensive team rebound132–109
- Q439.1Isaiah Joe misses 22-foot three point jumper132–109
- Q441.1Kenrich Williams offensive rebound132–109
- Q443.1Jared McCain misses 18-foot pullup jump shot132–109
- Q458.2Anthony Gill makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (Jaden Hardy assists)132–109
- Q41:13Isaiah Joe makes free throw 3 of 3132–107
- Q41:13Isaiah Joe makes free throw 2 of 3131–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:37Bub Carrington makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Alex Sarr assists)OKC 54 – 59 WSH · WSH 16% → 21% +5WSH 16% → 21%+5 pts
- Q38:53Alex Sarr makes 25-foot three point jumper (Will Riley assists)OKC 73 – 75 WSH · WSH 15% → 21% +6WSH 15% → 21%+6 pts
- Q31:24Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes driving layupOKC 95 – 93 WSH · OKC 78% → 84% +5OKC 78% → 84%+5 pts
- Q310.1Sharife Cooper makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Gill assists)OKC 100 – 96 WSH · WSH 7% → 12% +5WSH 7% → 12%+5 pts
- Q30.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotOKC 103 – 96 WSH · OKC 88% → 93% +5OKC 88% → 93%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 93%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -21.5
- ML OKC -2800 / WSH +1300
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 96%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -19
- OKC 95%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- OKC: Elo 95.4%, market 93.1%
- Fair odds
- OKC -1352
- WSH +1352 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 126.0 – 104.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1729 | 1256 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +55 | −33 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Missing Trae Young −41 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +525 Elo | OKC 95.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 96.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 95.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 93.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.5 | Points scored | 112.525th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.5 | Points allowed | 123.729th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.0 | Margin | −11.230th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 108.528th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.4 | Defense rating | 119.329th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.9 | Pace | 103.28th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 0–1029th of 30 |
| 1st of 3026–8 | Road vs home | 11–2528th of 30 |
| 24th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15087th of 30 |
| 1st of 301729 | Elo rating | 125630th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−33 Elo- Trae Young right quad contusion−41 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–37 | 29–40 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–36 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 27–37 |
| Overs–unders | 35–35 | 38–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 5–0 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.