Toronto Raptors at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints27
- Jamal SheadAssists14
- Scottie BarnesRebounds7
Jazz- Ace BaileyPoints37
- Kennedy ChandlerAssists9
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game143–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter143–127
- Q43.6Oscar Tshiebwe makes 5-foot two point shot143–127
- Q45.0Oscar Tshiebwe offensive rebound143–125
- Q48.1Ace Bailey misses 25-foot three point jumper143–125
- Q415.6Gradey Dick makes 24-foot three pointer (Jamison Battle assists)143–125
- Q437.0Jonathan Mogbo defensive rebound140–125
- Q440.6Kyle Filipowski misses 23-foot three point jumper140–125
- Q451.1Jazz defensive team rebound140–125
- Q453.1Trayce Jackson-Davis misses free throw 2 of 2140–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:46Ace Bailey makes 25-foot three pointerTOR 2 – 5 UTAH · UTAH 24% → 29% +5UTAH 24% → 29%+5 pts
- Q18:16John Konchar makes 24-foot three pointerTOR 4 – 9 UTAH · UTAH 28% → 34% +6UTAH 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q16:15John Konchar makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ace Bailey assists)TOR 10 – 12 UTAH · UTAH 23% → 28% +5UTAH 23% → 28%+5 pts
- Q15:14Ja'Kobe Walter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)TOR 13 – 14 UTAH · TOR 67% → 73% +6TOR 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q210:53Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 24-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)TOR 34 – 28 UTAH · TOR 79% → 84% +5TOR 79% → 84%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -8.5
- ML TOR -395 / UTAH +310
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -0.5
- TOR 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −28.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 48.6%, market 76.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -327
- UTAH +327 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 119.5 – 111.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1320 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −45 | +54 | TOR: Missing Brandon Ingram −25 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +10 Elo | UTAH 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 63.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 76.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30113.8 | Points scored | 117.38th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 124.830th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −7.526th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 112.221st of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 119.329th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.1 | Pace | 103.63rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 8th of 3020–15 | Road vs home | 13–2326th of 30 |
| 14th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15077th of 30 |
| 18th of 301485 | Elo rating | 132028th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−45 Elo- Brandon Ingram right heel−25 Elo
Jazz
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–34 | 37–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–22 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 32–32 |
| Overs–unders | 27–43 | 41–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–2 UTAH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.