Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Quentin GrimesPoints25
- Cameron PayneAssists7
- VJ EdgecombeRebounds13
Jazz- Ace BaileyPoints25
- Bez MbengAssists7
- Ace BaileyRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–116
- Q418.2VJ Edgecombe defensive rebound126–116
- Q420.9Bez Mbeng misses 25-foot three point jumper126–116
- Q427.4Ace Bailey offensive rebound126–116
- Q430.2Cody Williams misses 22-foot three point jumper126–116
- Q440.7VJ Edgecombe makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Quentin Grimes assists)126–116
- Q41:02Kennedy Chandler makes 7-foot two point shot124–116
- Q41:08Trendon Watford makes free throw 2 of 2124–114
- Q41:08Trendon Watford makes free throw 1 of 2123–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:24Ace Bailey makes 25-foot three point jumper (John Konchar assists)PHI 90 – 92 UTAH · UTAH 37% → 48% +11UTAH 37% → 48%+11 pts
- Q341.9VJ Edgecombe makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cameron Payne assists)PHI 95 – 92 UTAH · PHI 59% → 70% +11PHI 59% → 70%+11 pts
- Q49:02Cameron Payne makes 27-foot three point jumper (MarJon Beauchamp assists)PHI 102 – 98 UTAH · PHI 62% → 75% +13PHI 62% → 75%+13 pts
- Q45:46Adem Bona makes driving layup (Trendon Watford assists)PHI 108 – 108 UTAH · PHI 44% → 56% +12PHI 44% → 56%+12 pts
- Q44:45Quentin Grimes makes 14-foot pullup jump shotPHI 110 – 108 UTAH · PHI 55% → 68% +13PHI 55% → 68%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -5.5
- ML PHI -225 / UTAH +185
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -1.5
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.4%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -197
- UTAH +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 117.0 – 111.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1329 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −86 | +17 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +45 Elo | PHI 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 62.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 117.39th of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.1 | Points allowed | 124.830th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −7.526th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 112.221st of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 119.429th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.5 | Pace | 103.63rd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 13th of 3018–16 | Road vs home | 13–2225th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15068th of 30 |
| 14th of 301524 | Elo rating | 132927th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−86 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–32 | 37–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–15 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 16–17 | 32–31 |
| Overs–unders | 36–34 | 40–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–1 UTAH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.