Washington Wizards at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Will RileyPoints22
- Will RileyAssists5
- Alex SarrRebounds9
Warriors- Kristaps PorzingisPoints28
- Draymond GreenAssists10
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–131
- Q410.4Jaden Hardy bad pass
turnover (Brandin Podziemski steals)126–131
- Q411.4Wizards Full timeout126–131
- Q411.4Gui Santos makes free throw 2 of 2126–131
- Q411.4Gui Santos makes free throw 1 of 2126–130
- Q411.4Will Riley personal take foul126–129
- Q414.9Will Riley makes 27-foot three point jumper (Justin Champagnie assists)126–129
- Q424.8Kristaps Porzingis makes free throw 2 of 2123–129
- Q424.8Kristaps Porzingis makes free throw 1 of 2123–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:17Jaden Hardy makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotWSH 104 – 99 GS · WSH 43% → 58% +15WSH 43% → 58%+15 pts
- Q48:03Kristaps Porzingis makes 29-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)WSH 104 – 102 GS · GS 41% → 57% +15GS 41% → 57%+15 pts
- Q46:50Jaden Hardy makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Leaky Black assists)WSH 109 – 104 GS · WSH 46% → 62% +16WSH 46% → 62%+16 pts
- Q46:07Gui Santos makes 1-foot layup (Gary Payton II assists)WSH 111 – 108 GS · GS 36% → 47% +11GS 36% → 47%+11 pts
- Q45:46Gui Santos makes two point shotWSH 111 – 110 GS · GS 46% → 58% +12GS 46% → 58%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- GS -12.5
- ML WSH +525 / GS -750
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -8.5
- GS 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- GS: Elo 79.3%, market 84.7%
- Fair odds
- GS -551
- WSH +551 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 109.0 – 121.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1281 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −19 | −32 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +233 Elo | GS 79.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 81.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 80.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 84.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 115.019th of 30 |
| 29th of 30123.9 | Points allowed | 114.812th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.1 | Margin | +0.218th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 112.619th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.5 | Defense rating | 112.414th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.3 | Pace | 101.316th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 28th of 306–29 | Road vs home | 20–1515th of 30 |
| 4th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 30 |
| 29th of 301281 | Elo rating | 149119th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–41 | 32–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 21–25 |
| Underdog | 29–38 | 11–16 |
| Overs–unders | 41–31 | 44–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–5 GS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.