Indiana Pacers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Andrew NembhardPoints25
- T.J. McConnellAssists8
- Jarace WalkerRebounds4
Spurs- Keldon JohnsonPoints24
- De'Aaron FoxAssists7
- Carter BryantRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–134
- Q411.4shot clock turnover119–134
- Q436.2Quenton Jackson makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot119–134
- Q445.0Quenton Jackson defensive rebound116–134
- Q447.2Kelly Olynyk misses 25-foot three point jumper116–134
- Q41:11Micah Potter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jarace Walker assists)116–134
- Q41:32Bismack Biyombo offensive foul turnover113–134
- Q41:32Bismack Biyombo offensive foul113–134
- Q41:36Ben Sheppard kicked ball violation113–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:26Harrison Barnes makes 22-foot running jump shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)IND 0 – 3 SA · SA 90% → 93% +3SA 90% → 93%+3 pts
- Q15:33Aaron Nesmith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jay Huff assists)IND 14 – 18 SA · IND 5% → 8% +2IND 5% → 8%+2 pts
- Q15:01Keldon Johnson makes 25-foot running jump shot (Jordan McLaughlin assists)IND 14 – 21 SA · SA 92% → 95% +2SA 92% → 95%+2 pts
- Q14:48Ben Sheppard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jay Huff assists)IND 17 – 21 SA · IND 6% → 8% +2IND 6% → 8%+2 pts
- Q39:40Jarace Walker makes 25-foot three pointer (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 62 – 70 SA · IND 4% → 7% +3IND 4% → 7%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- SA -16.5
- ML IND +900 / SA -1600
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 92%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -15
- SA 92%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- SA: Elo 92.1%, market 90.4%
- Fair odds
- SA -941
- IND +941 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 109.5 – 126.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1319 | 1661 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −13 | +36 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Missing Devin Vassell −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +427 Elo | SA 92.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 92.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 92.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 90.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30111.3 | Points scored | 118.74th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.2 | Points allowed | 111.77th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.9 | Margin | +7.04th of 30 |
| 29th of 30108.1 | Offense rating | 116.44th of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.7 | Defense rating | 109.63rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.5 | Pace | 101.712th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 30th of 305–30 | Road vs home | 27–72nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15097th of 30 |
| 28th of 301319 | Elo rating | 16613rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+36 Elo- Devin Vassell right hamstring−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–40 | 41–30 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 28–24 |
| Underdog | 27–33 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 34–36 | 30–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 2–3 SA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.