Chicago Bulls at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Tre JonesPoints23
- Josh GiddeyAssists10
- Josh GiddeyRebounds7
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints41
- Stephon CastleAssists10
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–129
- Q419.4Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three pointer (Patrick Williams assists)114–129
- Q428.8shot clock turnover111–129
- Q452.1Luke Kornet defensive rebound111–129
- Q455.0Patrick Williams misses 27-foot three point jumper111–129
- Q41:04Devin Vassell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)111–129
- Q41:14Keldon Johnson offensive rebound111–126
- Q41:18Stephon Castle misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot111–126
- Q41:35Julian Champagnie defensive rebound111–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:15Tre Jones makes 25-foot three pointerCHI 28 – 24 SA · CHI 12% → 16% +4CHI 12% → 16%+4 pts
- Q123.0Keldon Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)CHI 28 – 29 SA · SA 86% → 90% +4SA 86% → 90%+4 pts
- Q26:25Josh Giddey makes 22-foot three point jumper (Leonard Miller assists)CHI 38 – 38 SA · CHI 9% → 13% +4CHI 9% → 13%+4 pts
- Q26:13Julian Champagnie makes 22-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)CHI 38 – 41 SA · SA 87% → 90% +4SA 87% → 90%+4 pts
- Q25:13Stephon Castle makes 26-foot three point jumper (Julian Champagnie assists)CHI 40 – 44 SA · SA 88% → 91% +4SA 88% → 91%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 92%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- SA -17.5
- ML CHI +1100 / SA -2100
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 91%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -14.5
- SA 91%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- SA: Elo 91.4%, market 92.0%
- Fair odds
- SA -1145
- CHI +1145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 114.5 – 132.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 246.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1374 | 1682 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −9 | +57 | CHI: Missing Anfernee Simons −8 · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +410 Elo | SA 91.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 91.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 91.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 92.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.4 | Points scored | 119.34th of 30 |
| 27th of 30121.0 | Points allowed | 111.47th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.6 | Margin | +7.93rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 117.04th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 109.23rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.7 | Pace | 101.812th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 22nd of 3011–25 | Road vs home | 28–72nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 25th of 301374 | Elo rating | 16822nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−9 Elo- Anfernee Simons fractured left wrist−8 Elo
Spurs
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–40 | 44–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–20 | 31–25 |
| Underdog | 27–20 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 35–39 | 32–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 5–1 SA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.