Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Josh GiddeyPoints23
- Josh GiddeyAssists12
- Josh GiddeyRebounds9
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints35
- Joel EmbiidAssists7
- Adem BonaRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game137–157
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter137–157
- Q40.1Bulls offensive team rebound137–157
- Q40.2Matas Buzelis misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot137–157
- Q44.0Leonard Miller defensive rebound137–157
- Q47.3Kyle Lowry misses 27-foot three point jumper137–157
- Q418.1Leonard Miller makes free throw 2 of 2137–157
- Q418.1Leonard Miller makes free throw 1 of 2136–157
- Q418.1Jabari Walker shooting foul135–157
- Q425.2Kyle Lowry makes 26-foot three pointer (Dalen Terry assists)135–157
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:11Joel Embiid makes 26-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)CHI 0 – 5 PHI · PHI 72% → 77% +5PHI 72% → 77%+5 pts
- Q16:32Collin Sexton makes 25-foot running jump shot (Matas Buzelis assists)CHI 14 – 16 PHI · CHI 24% → 29% +5CHI 24% → 29%+5 pts
- Q15:57Joel Embiid makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dominick Barlow assists)CHI 14 – 19 PHI · PHI 71% → 76% +5PHI 71% → 76%+5 pts
- Q13:19Justin Edwards makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dominick Barlow assists)CHI 19 – 26 PHI · PHI 74% → 80% +5PHI 74% → 80%+5 pts
- Q11:33Isaac Okoro makes 23-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)CHI 26 – 31 PHI · CHI 19% → 24% +5CHI 19% → 24%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -6.5
- ML CHI +200 / PHI -245
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -7.5
- PHI 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 77.5%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -213
- CHI +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 117.5 – 124.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1387 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | +32 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +215 Elo | PHI 77.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 77.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 77.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.0 | Points scored | 115.615th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.3 | Points allowed | 116.217th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.2 | Margin | −0.719th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 112.519th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 113.217th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.3 | Pace | 101.515th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3011–22 | Road vs home | 20–1719th of 30 |
| 8th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301387 | Elo rating | 152914th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–38 | 39–33 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–19 | 23–15 |
| Underdog | 26–19 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders | 32–39 | 37–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 6–3 PHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Dec 26PHI 102 @ CHI 109Picked PHI 53%Miss
- Nov 4PHI 111 @ CHI 113Picked CHI 54%Hit
- Apr 13CHI 122 @ PHI 102Picked CHI 73%Hit
- Feb 24CHI 142 @ PHI 110Picked PHI 68%Miss
- Jan 25PHI 109 @ CHI 97Picked CHI 58%Miss
- Dec 8PHI 108 @ CHI 100Picked PHI 57%Hit
- Jan 2CHI 97 @ PHI 110Picked PHI 71%Hit
- Dec 30PHI 92 @ CHI 105Picked CHI 52%Hit