Cleveland Cavaliers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- James HardenPoints36
- James HardenAssists9
- Evan MobleyRebounds14
Bulls- Tre JonesPoints20
- Josh GiddeyAssists19
- Guerschon YabuseleRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–110
- Q40.0(00:00) [Cavaliers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)115–110
- Q41.3Dennis Schroder makes free throw 2 of 2115–110
- Q41.3Dennis Schroder makes free throw 1 of 2114–110
- Q41.3Tre Jones personal foul113–110
- Q44.0Dennis Schroder enters the game for Keon Ellis113–110
- Q44.0Cavaliers Full timeout113–110
- Q44.0Guerschon Yabusele makes running layup113–110
- Q47.7Guerschon Yabusele defensive rebound113–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:47James Harden makes 12-foot step back jumpshotCLE 103 – 99 CHI · CLE 72% → 82% +10CLE 72% → 82%+10 pts
- Q43:18Sam Merrill makes 27-foot three point jumper (Keon Ellis assists)CLE 106 – 102 CHI · CLE 66% → 84% +18CLE 66% → 84%+18 pts
- Q42:24Guerschon Yabusele makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)CLE 108 – 105 CHI · CHI 6% → 19% +13CHI 6% → 19%+13 pts
- Q42:00Evan Mobley makes 1-foot dunk (James Harden assists)CLE 110 – 105 CHI · CLE 82% → 93% +10CLE 82% → 93%+10 pts
- Q41:41Josh Giddey makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotCLE 110 – 107 CHI · CHI 6% → 16% +10CHI 6% → 16%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -9.5
- ML CLE -485 / CHI +370
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -6
- CLE 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 72.5%, market 79.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -390
- CHI +390 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 123.0 – 113.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1610 | 1377 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −67 | +1 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Missing Jalen Smith −16 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +169 Elo | CLE 72.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 79.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 79.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 79.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.1 | Points scored | 115.913th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.9 | Points allowed | 120.327th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.3 | Margin | −4.423rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.4 | Offense rating | 111.225th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 115.823rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.8 | Pace | 104.32nd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 8th of 3020–14 | Road vs home | 17–1921st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15059th of 30 |
| 5th of 301610 | Elo rating | 137725th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+1 Elo- Jalen Smith right calf strain−16 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–41 | 31–38 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–36 | 7–19 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 24–19 |
| Overs–unders | 34–35 | 31–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 8–3 CHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Dec 19CHI 136 @ CLE 125Picked CLE 62%Miss
- Dec 17CLE 111 @ CHI 127Picked CLE 66%Miss
- Nov 8CHI 122 @ CLE 128Picked CLE 76%Hit
- Apr 8CHI 113 @ CLE 135Picked CLE 88%Hit
- Mar 4CLE 139 @ CHI 117Picked CLE 86%Hit
- Nov 15CHI 126 @ CLE 144Picked CLE 79%Hit
- Nov 11CLE 119 @ CHI 113Picked CLE 74%Hit
- Feb 28CLE 123 @ CHI 132Picked CLE 62%Miss