Oklahoma City Thunder at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints22
- Jalen WilliamsAssists6
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds12
76ers- VJ EdgecombePoints35
- Cameron PayneAssists6
- Dominick BarlowRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–103
- Q419.8Tyrese Martin makes driving layup123–103
- Q427.5Isaiah Joe makes 29-foot three point jumper123–101
- Q428.9Isaiah Joe offensive rebound120–101
- Q430.9Kenrich Williams misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot120–101
- Q434.9Trendon Watford bad pass
turnover (Aaron Wiggins steals)120–101
- Q437.0Trendon Watford defensive rebound120–101
- Q440.3Kenrich Williams misses 21-foot pullup jump shot120–101
- Q452.9Jabari Walker makes free throw 2 of 2120–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:27VJ Edgecombe makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Adem Bona assists)OKC 2 – 3 PHI · PHI 10% → 12% +3PHI 10% → 12%+3 pts
- Q110:38Justin Edwards makes 29-foot three point jumper (VJ Edgecombe assists)OKC 4 – 6 PHI · PHI 11% → 14% +3PHI 11% → 14%+3 pts
- Q110:05MarJon Beauchamp makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dominick Barlow assists)OKC 6 – 9 PHI · PHI 12% → 15% +3PHI 12% → 15%+3 pts
- Q19:47Jalen Williams makes 1-foot two point shot (Chet Holmgren assists)OKC 8 – 9 PHI · OKC 85% → 87% +2OKC 85% → 87%+2 pts
- Q19:11Chet Holmgren makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 11 – 9 PHI · OKC 87% → 90% +3OKC 87% → 90%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -16.5
- ML OKC -1200 / PHI +750
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -11
- OKC 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- OKC: Elo 85.0%, market 88.7%
- Fair odds
- OKC -785
- PHI +785 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 121.5 – 105.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1730 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | −85 | OKC: Missing Ajay Mitchell −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | PHI crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +301 Elo | OKC 85.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 84.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 84.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 88.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30118.7 | Points scored | 115.814th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.5 | Points allowed | 116.117th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.1 | Margin | −0.419th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.4 | Offense rating | 112.717th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.5 | Defense rating | 113.016th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.9 | Pace | 101.515th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 1st of 3027–8 | Road vs home | 20–1616th of 30 |
| 26th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149324th of 30 |
| 1st of 301730 | Elo rating | 153314th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+31 Elo- Ajay Mitchell suspended by league−3 Elo
76ers
−85 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–38 | 39–32 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–37 | 23–15 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 16–17 |
| Overs–unders | 36–35 | 37–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 3–2 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.