Houston Rockets at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints40
- Alperen SengunAssists10
- Alperen SengunRebounds13
Bulls- Collin SextonPoints25
- Josh GiddeyAssists13
- Leonard MillerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–132
- Q43.3Matas Buzelis defensive rebound124–132
- Q43.3Kevin Durant misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot124–132
- Q47.9Collin Sexton makes free throw 2 of 2124–132
- Q47.9Reed Sheppard enters the game for Amen Thompson124–131
- Q47.9Collin Sexton makes free throw 1 of 2124–131
- Q47.9Amen Thompson personal take foul124–130
- Q49.1Collin Sexton enters the game for Leonard Miller124–130
- Q49.1Josh Giddey makes technical free throw124–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:56Jabari Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Holiday assists)HOU 109 – 106 CHI · HOU 60% → 75% +16HOU 60% → 75%+16 pts
- Q42:59Alperen Sengun makes 1-foot driving dunk (Reed Sheppard assists)HOU 114 – 114 CHI · HOU 40% → 57% +17HOU 40% → 57%+17 pts
- Q42:37Leonard Miller makes 1-foot driving dunk (Josh Giddey assists)HOU 114 – 116 CHI · CHI 44% → 61% +18CHI 44% → 61%+18 pts
- Q42:18Kevin Durant makes 19-foot step back jumpshotHOU 116 – 116 CHI · HOU 37% → 56% +19HOU 37% → 56%+19 pts
- Q41:21Josh Giddey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)HOU 118 – 121 CHI · CHI 45% → 79% +34CHI 45% → 79%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -8.5
- ML HOU -375 / CHI +295
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4.5
- HOU 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 67.2%, market 75.7%
- Fair odds
- HOU -312
- CHI +312 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 121.0 – 112.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1373 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | +24 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +124 Elo | HOU 67.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 75.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 74.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 75.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.0 | Points scored | 115.813th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.9 | Points allowed | 120.226th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.1 | Margin | −4.423rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.0 | Offense rating | 111.125th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 115.723rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.8 | Pace | 104.22nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 14th of 3018–17 | Road vs home | 17–2021st of 30 |
| 19th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15059th of 30 |
| 10th of 301568 | Elo rating | 137325th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–40 | 32–38 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 25–36 | 7–19 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 25–19 |
| Overs–unders | 30–40 | 31–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–1 CHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.