Miami Heat at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints32
- Davion MitchellAssists9
- Bam AdebayoRebounds21
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints27
- Reed SheppardAssists14
- Amen ThompsonRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–123
- Q40.0(00:00) [Heat] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)122–123
- Q40.2Amen Thompson makes tip shot122–123
- Q40.2Amen Thompson offensive rebound122–121
- Q42.5Kevin Durant misses 17-foot pullup jump shot122–121
- Q45.4Rockets Full timeout122–121
- Q45.4Kel'el Ware enters the game for Davion Mitchell122–121
- Q45.4Alperen Sengun enters the game for Tari Eason122–121
- Q45.4(00:05.4) [Heat] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)122–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:45Kevin Durant makes 22-foot three point jumper (Reed Sheppard assists)MIA 109 – 114 HOU · HOU 65% → 81% +16HOU 65% → 81%+16 pts
- Q446.3Pelle Larsson makes 1-foot two point shot (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 118 – 119 HOU · MIA 11% → 33% +23MIA 11% → 33%+23 pts
- Q412.7Reed Sheppard makes 15-foot driving floating jump shot (Kevin Durant assists)MIA 118 – 121 HOU · HOU 79% → >99% +20HOU 79% → >99%+20 pts
- Q45.4Simone Fontecchio makes layup (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 122 – 121 HOU · MIA 11% → 88% +77MIA 11% → 88%+77 pts
- Q40.2Amen Thompson makes tip shotMIA 122 – 123 HOU · HOU <1% → >99% +100HOU <1% → >99%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -2.5
- ML MIA +120 / HOU -142
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- HOU 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 49.4%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -129
- MIA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 113.0 – 115.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +27 | −17 | MIA: Missing Norman Powell −17, Jaime Jaquez Jr. −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +4 Elo | MIA 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.3 | Points scored | 113.922nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.1 | Points allowed | 109.84th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+3.2 | Margin | +4.18th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 114.911th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 110.77th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.6 | Pace | 97.929th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 18th of 3015–19 | Road vs home | 24–105th of 30 |
| 19th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 16th of 301520 | Elo rating | 156410th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+27 Elo- Norman Powell left calf tightness−17 Elo
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. not with team−2 Elo
Rockets
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–29 | 30–39 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 20–16 | 25–35 |
| Underdog | 21–13 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 38–32 | 29–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–1 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.