Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints60
- LeBron JamesAssists10
- LeBron JamesRebounds15
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints28
- Davion MitchellAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game134–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter134–126
- Q40.2Austin Reaves defensive rebound134–126
- Q40.6Bam Adebayo misses 27-foot three point jumper134–126
- Q42.0Pelle Larsson offensive rebound134–126
- Q45.8Davion Mitchell misses 25-foot three point jumper134–126
- Q47.5Bam Adebayo offensive rebound134–126
- Q410.1Tyler Herro misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot134–126
- Q414.8Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2134–126
- Q414.8Lakers offensive team rebound133–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:52Austin Reaves makes 26-foot three pointerLAL 105 – 98 MIA · LAL 67% → 80% +13LAL 67% → 80%+13 pts
- Q45:30Tyler Herro makes 27-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)LAL 111 – 105 MIA · MIA 9% → 19% +10MIA 9% → 19%+10 pts
- Q44:17Davion Mitchell makes 23-foot three pointer (Bam Adebayo assists)LAL 114 – 110 MIA · MIA 12% → 26% +14MIA 12% → 26%+14 pts
- Q43:54Luka Doncic makes 3-foot driving floating jump shotLAL 116 – 110 MIA · LAL 75% → 85% +10LAL 75% → 85%+10 pts
- Q41:59Luka Doncic makes 24-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 124 – 117 MIA · LAL 84% → 96% +12LAL 84% → 96%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -3.5
- ML LAL +124 / MIA -148
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -0.5
- MIA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- MIA: Elo 52.4%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -134
- LAL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 119.5 – 123.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1584 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +67 | +50 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +17 Elo | MIA 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.4 | Points scored | 120.22nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.9 | Points allowed | 116.921st of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +3.311th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.1 | Offense rating | 113.414th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 110.25th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.1 | Pace | 105.71st of 30 |
| 3rd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 5th of 3021–13 | Road vs home | 23–128th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150020th of 30 |
| 9th of 301584 | Elo rating | 153014th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–29 | 41–28 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 28–13 | 20–15 |
| Underdog | 12–16 | 21–13 |
| Overs–unders | 36–33 | 37–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 2–3 MIA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.