Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints20
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists6
- Tyler HerroRebounds8
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints30
- LaMelo BallAssists13
- Moussa DiabateRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–136
- Q42.3Myron Gardner lost ball turnover (Tre Mann steals)106–136
- Q410.5Pat Connaughton makes free throw 2 of 2106–136
- Q410.5Hornets offensive team rebound106–135
- Q410.5Pat Connaughton misses free throw 1 of 2106–135
- Q410.5Myron Gardner personal foul106–135
- Q413.7Jahmir Young bad pass
turnover (Pat Connaughton steals)106–135
- Q423.5Tre Mann makes free throw 2 of 2106–135
- Q423.5Tre Mann makes free throw 1 of 2106–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:17Norman Powell makes 26-foot running jump shot (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 71 – 73 CHA · MIA 26% → 35% +9MIA 26% → 35%+9 pts
- Q34:48LaMelo Ball makes 29-foot three pointerMIA 75 – 80 CHA · CHA 65% → 75% +9CHA 65% → 75%+9 pts
- Q34:05Tyler Herro makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 78 – 83 CHA · MIA 17% → 25% +8MIA 17% → 25%+8 pts
- Q33:50Pelle Larsson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Keshad Johnson assists)MIA 81 – 83 CHA · MIA 25% → 35% +9MIA 25% → 35%+9 pts
- Q310.4Miles Bridges makes 25-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)MIA 88 – 96 CHA · CHA 76% → 84% +9CHA 76% → 84%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -5.5
- ML MIA +170 / CHA -205
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -3
- CHA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- CHA: Elo 61.5%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- CHA -181
- MIA +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 115.5 – 121.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +18 | +58 | MIA: Missing Bam Adebayo −34 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHA +81 Elo | CHA 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 61.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.4 | Points scored | 115.517th of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 112.39th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.8 | Margin | +3.211th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 115.68th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 112.415th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.7 | Pace | 99.523rd of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 17th of 3015–18 | Road vs home | 14–1722nd of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 148829th of 30 |
| 13th of 301546 | Elo rating | 156410th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+18 Elo- Bam Adebayo right calf−34 Elo
Hornets
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–27 | 41–27 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–15 | 14–10 |
| Underdog | 21–12 | 27–17 |
| Overs–unders | 36–32 | 26–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 10–1 CHA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Mar 6MIA 128 @ CHA 120Picked CHA 72%Miss
- Nov 7CHA 108 @ MIA 126Picked MIA 69%Hit
- Oct 28CHA 117 @ MIA 144Picked MIA 61%Hit
- Mar 23CHA 105 @ MIA 122Picked MIA 71%Hit
- Mar 10CHA 105 @ MIA 102Picked MIA 77%Miss
- Nov 27MIA 98 @ CHA 94Picked MIA 60%Hit
- Oct 26MIA 114 @ CHA 106Picked MIA 69%Hit
- Jan 14CHA 87 @ MIA 104Picked MIA 72%Hit