Chicago Bulls at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Matas BuzelisPoints29
- Josh GiddeyAssists10
- Josh GiddeyRebounds13
Grizzlies- Cedric CowardPoints24
- Walter Clayton Jr.Assists6
- Cedric CowardRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–125
- Q40.0(00:00) [Bulls] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)124–125
- Q42.2Cedric Coward bad pass
turnover (Tre Jones steals)124–125
- Q44.0Grizzlies Full timeout124–125
- Q44.0Josh Giddey makes free throw 2 of 2124–125
- Q44.0Josh Giddey makes free throw 1 of 2123–125
- Q44.0GG Jackson enters the game for Rayan Rupert122–125
- Q44.0Rayan Rupert personal take foul122–125
- Q46.5Cedric Coward makes free throw 2 of 2122–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:56Adama Bal makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jahmai Mashack assists)CHI 114 – 116 MEM · MEM 37% → 67% +30MEM 37% → 67%+30 pts
- Q41:49Josh Giddey makes driving layupCHI 116 – 116 MEM · CHI 32% → 53% +21CHI 32% → 53%+21 pts
- Q41:27Cedric Coward makes driving layupCHI 116 – 118 MEM · MEM 47% → 70% +23MEM 47% → 70%+23 pts
- Q432.8Tre Jones makes 2-foot two point shotCHI 120 – 120 MEM · CHI 17% → 52% +34CHI 17% → 52%+34 pts
- Q415.8Walter Clayton Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cedric Coward assists)CHI 120 – 123 MEM · MEM 49% → 98% +49MEM 49% → 98%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -5.5
- ML CHI -205 / MEM +170
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -1.5
- CHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- CHI: Elo 55.4%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- CHI -181
- MEM +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 126.5 – 121.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 247.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1378 | 1382 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | MEM and CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −1 | −78 | CHI: Missing Anfernee Simons −3 · MEM: Missing Cam Spencer −18 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +37 Elo | CHI 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 64.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 115.019th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.9 | Points allowed | 119.124th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.6 | Margin | −4.122nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 111.024th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 114.921st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.5 | Pace | 103.36th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 1–927th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3011–24 | Road vs home | 12–2325th of 30 |
| 5th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 30 |
| 24th of 301378 | Elo rating | 138222nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−1 Elo- Anfernee Simons left wrist injury−3 Elo
Grizzlies
−78 Elo- Cam Spencer lower back soreness−18 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–39 | 34–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–19 | 10–9 |
| Underdog | 27–20 | 24–30 |
| Overs–unders | 34–39 | 35–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 4–1 MEM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.