Houston Rockets at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints25
- Kevin DurantAssists10
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds16
Grizzlies- Olivier-Maxence ProsperPoints31
- Cam SpencerAssists10
- Olivier-Maxence ProsperRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–109
- Q422.0Amen Thompson defensive rebound119–109
- Q424.7GG Jackson misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot119–109
- Q429.1Tari Eason makes 1-foot running dunk (Amen Thompson assists)119–109
- Q432.7Amen Thompson defensive rebound117–109
- Q434.3Javon Small misses 27-foot three point jumper117–109
- Q439.5Jabari Smith Jr. makes dunk117–109
- Q453.2Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)115–109
- Q458.8Jabari Smith Jr. makes tip shot115–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:31Aaron Holiday makes 23-foot three point jumper (Reed Sheppard assists)HOU 14 – 18 MEM · HOU 74% → 79% +5HOU 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q49:37Amen Thompson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Reed Sheppard assists)HOU 94 – 86 MEM · HOU 86% → 92% +6HOU 86% → 92%+6 pts
- Q48:28Cam Spencer makes 25-foot running jump shot (Taylor Hendricks assists)HOU 94 – 89 MEM · MEM 7% → 14% +7MEM 7% → 14%+7 pts
- Q47:21DeJon Jarreau makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)HOU 96 – 93 MEM · MEM 14% → 20% +7MEM 14% → 20%+7 pts
- Q47:03Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 99 – 93 MEM · HOU 80% → 89% +9HOU 80% → 89%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 87%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -13.5
- ML HOU -950 / MEM +625
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -6
- HOU 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 72.2%, market 86.8%
- Fair odds
- HOU -656
- MEM +656 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 120.5 – 107.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1387 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | −41 | HOU: Usual rotation · MEM: Missing Ty Jerome −44 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +165 Elo | HOU 72.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 85.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 84.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 86.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.1 | Points scored | 115.118th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.2 | Points allowed | 119.123rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.8 | Margin | −4.022nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 110.925th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 114.821st of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.0 | Pace | 103.45th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–927th of 30 |
| 14th of 3018–19 | Road vs home | 12–2225th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150411th of 30 |
| 13th of 301550 | Elo rating | 138722nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−41 Elo- Ty Jerome left ankle sprain−44 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–42 | 33–39 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 25–38 | 10–9 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 23–30 |
| Overs–unders | 31–41 | 34–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 8–2 MEM in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.
- Jan 26MEM 99 @ HOU 108Picked HOU 80%Hit
- Nov 5HOU 124 @ MEM 109Picked HOU 72%Hit
- Jan 30HOU 119 @ MEM 120Picked MEM 61%Hit
- Jan 13MEM 118 @ HOU 120Picked HOU 56%Hit
- Jan 9HOU 119 @ MEM 115Picked MEM 57%Miss
- Oct 25MEM 108 @ HOU 128Picked HOU 60%Hit
- Feb 14HOU 113 @ MEM 121Picked MEM 53%Hit
- Dec 15HOU 103 @ MEM 96Picked HOU 58%Hit