Memphis Grizzlies at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- GG JacksonPoints19
- DeJon JarreauAssists4
- Javon SmallRebounds7
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints29
- Coby WhiteAssists7
- Moussa DiabateRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–124
- Q45.8shot clock turnover101–124
- Q428.7Josh Green defensive rebound101–124
- Q430.7Walter Clayton Jr. misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot101–124
- Q440.0Ryan Kalkbrenner makes dunk (Sion James assists)101–124
- Q449.7Josh Green offensive rebound101–122
- Q452.2Tre Mann misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot101–122
- Q41:12Javon Small makes running dunk (Olivier-Maxence Prosper assists)101–122
- Q41:16Olivier-Maxence Prosper defensive rebound99–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:33Taj Gibson makes 24-foot three point jumper (DeJon Jarreau assists)MEM 23 – 24 CHA · MEM 8% → 11% +3MEM 8% → 11%+3 pts
- Q211:24Sion James makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kon Knueppel assists)MEM 28 – 33 CHA · CHA 90% → 93% +3CHA 90% → 93%+3 pts
- Q26:33Sion James makes 25-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)MEM 38 – 45 CHA · CHA 91% → 94% +3CHA 91% → 94%+3 pts
- Q26:15Jaylen Wells makes 25-foot three point jumper (GG Jackson assists)MEM 41 – 45 CHA · MEM 6% → 9% +3MEM 6% → 9%+3 pts
- Q25:08Brandon Miller makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Coby White assists)MEM 41 – 48 CHA · CHA 90% → 93% +3CHA 90% → 93%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 91%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -18.5
- ML MEM +950 / CHA -1650
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 93%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -13.5
- CHA 90%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- CHA: Elo 90.0%, market 90.8%
- Fair odds
- CHA -990
- MEM +990 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 107.5 – 126.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1403 | 1588 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −48 | +61 | MEM: Missing Ty Jerome −45, Brandon Clarke −12 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHA +382 Elo | CHA 90.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 93.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 92.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 90.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 116.012th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.6 | Points allowed | 112.29th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.9 | Margin | +3.89th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 115.98th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 112.112th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.4 | Pace | 99.723rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3011–23 | Road vs home | 16–1720th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 148628th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301403 | Elo rating | 15889th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−48 Elo- Ty Jerome right calf−45 Elo
- Brandon Clarke right calf strain−12 Elo
Hornets
+61 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–36 | 43–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 16–10 |
| Underdog | 23–27 | 27–17 |
| Overs–unders | 33–36 | 28–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 2–3 CHA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.