Orlando Magic at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Desmond BanePoints24
- Paolo BancheroAssists7
- Desmond BaneRebounds7
Hornets- Coby WhitePoints27
- Brandon MillerAssists8
- LaMelo BallRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–130
- Q418.5Jamal Cain makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Alex Morales assists)111–130
- Q431.1Colin Castleton defensive rebound109–130
- Q434.2Xavier Tillman misses free throw 2 of 2109–130
- Q434.2Hornets offensive team rebound109–130
- Q434.2Xavier Tillman misses free throw 1 of 2109–130
- Q434.2Alex Morales shooting foul109–130
- Q434.2Colin Castleton bad pass
turnover (Xavier Tillman steals)109–130
- Q438.2Colin Castleton defensive rebound109–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:54Desmond Bane makes 26-foot three pointer (Jalen Suggs assists)ORL 10 – 7 CHA · ORL 34% → 40% +6ORL 34% → 40%+6 pts
- Q18:42Paolo Banchero makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotORL 15 – 9 CHA · ORL 40% → 47% +6ORL 40% → 47%+6 pts
- Q14:37Jevon Carter makes 24-foot three pointer (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 26 – 20 CHA · ORL 41% → 48% +7ORL 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q11:11Coby White makes 30-foot three pointerORL 32 – 29 CHA · CHA 51% → 58% +7CHA 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q211:45Coby White makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Kon Knueppel assists)ORL 32 – 37 CHA · CHA 69% → 75% +6CHA 69% → 75%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -5.5
- ML ORL +185 / CHA -225
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -5
- CHA 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- CHA: Elo 69.2%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- CHA -197
- ORL +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 110.0 – 115.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1580 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | +65 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +141 Elo | CHA 69.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 66.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 66.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 115.813th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 112.29th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +3.610th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 115.88th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 112.212th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.5 | Pace | 99.623rd of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 15th of 3016–16 | Road vs home | 15–1721st of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 148828th of 30 |
| 15th of 301527 | Elo rating | 15809th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–37 | 42–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–25 | 15–10 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 27–17 |
| Overs–unders | 36–32 | 27–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 8–3 CHA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Jan 22CHA 124 @ ORL 97Picked ORL 60%Miss
- Dec 26CHA 120 @ ORL 105Picked ORL 67%Miss
- Oct 30ORL 123 @ CHA 107Picked ORL 60%Hit
- Mar 25ORL 111 @ CHA 104Picked ORL 60%Hit
- Feb 12CHA 86 @ ORL 102Picked ORL 85%Hit
- Nov 25ORL 95 @ CHA 84Picked ORL 63%Hit
- Nov 12CHA 89 @ ORL 114Picked ORL 73%Hit
- Apr 5ORL 115 @ CHA 124Picked ORL 71%Miss