Boston Celtics at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints30
- Jaylen BrownAssists6
- Neemias QuetaRebounds11
Grizzlies- Tyler BurtonPoints23
- Ty JeromeAssists7
- Olivier-Maxence ProsperRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–112
- Q41.5Javon Small makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot117–112
- Q46.7Payton Pritchard makes free throw 2 of 2117–109
- Q46.7Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Jaylen Brown116–109
- Q46.7Ron Harper Jr. enters the game for Jayson Tatum116–109
- Q46.7Payton Pritchard makes free throw 1 of 2116–109
- Q46.7Olivier-Maxence Prosper personal take foul115–109
- Q46.7Payton Pritchard defensive rebound115–109
- Q410.6Walter Clayton Jr. misses 26-foot running jump shot115–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q325.5DeJon Jarreau makes 22-foot three point jumper (Javon Small assists)BOS 82 – 88 MEM · MEM 37% → 49% +12MEM 37% → 49%+12 pts
- Q410:09Ty Jerome makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 89 – 93 MEM · MEM 32% → 45% +13MEM 32% → 45%+13 pts
- Q49:23Ty Jerome makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 91 – 96 MEM · MEM 38% → 52% +14MEM 38% → 52%+14 pts
- Q47:58Derrick White makes 25-foot three pointer (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 96 – 98 MEM · BOS 45% → 60% +15BOS 45% → 60%+15 pts
- Q47:00Tyler Burton makes 27-foot three point jumper (DeJon Jarreau assists)BOS 98 – 101 MEM · MEM 32% → 47% +16MEM 32% → 47%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -15.5
- ML BOS -1350 / MEM +800
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -9.5
- BOS 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 81.6%, market 89.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -838
- MEM +838 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 123.0 – 107.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1660 | 1405 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +53 | +12 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Brandon Clarke −11 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +259 Elo | BOS 81.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 86.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 85.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 89.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30114.4 | Points scored | 115.714th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.0 | Points allowed | 118.624th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.4 | Margin | −2.921st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30117.7 | Offense rating | 111.422nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 114.219th of 30 |
| 30th of 3096.9 | Pace | 103.55th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–824th of 30 |
| 4th of 3022–13 | Road vs home | 12–2025th of 30 |
| 29th of 301483 | Opponent Elo | 149622nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301660 | Elo rating | 140522nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+12 Elo- Brandon Clarke right calf strain−11 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–29 | 32–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–22 | 10–9 |
| Underdog | 12–7 | 22–27 |
| Overs–unders | 25–44 | 33–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–1 MEM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.