Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints30
- Amen ThompsonAssists10
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds12
Timberwolves- Jaden McDanielsPoints25
- Bones HylandAssists8
- Rudy GobertRebounds14
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game108–110
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime108–110
- OT1.1Reed Sheppard enters the game for Jae'Sean Tate108–110
- OT1.1Rockets offensive team rebound108–110
- OT3.3Kevin Durant misses free throw 2 of 2108–110
- OT3.3Jae'Sean Tate enters the game for Reed Sheppard108–110
- OT3.3Rockets offensive team rebound108–110
- OT3.3Kevin Durant misses free throw 1 of 2108–110
- OT3.3Julius Randle shooting foul108–110
- OT8.8Reed Sheppard enters the game for Jae'Sean Tate108–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q453.1Kevin Durant makes 13-foot pullup jump shotHOU 94 – 93 MIN · HOU 36% → 65% +30HOU 36% → 65%+30 pts
- Q428.5Julius Randle makes 5-foot driving floating jump shotHOU 94 – 95 MIN · MIN 30% → 70% +40MIN 30% → 70%+40 pts
- Q49.0Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 1HOU 95 – 95 MIN · HOU 18% → 50% +33HOU 18% → 50%+33 pts
- OT55.5Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)HOU 108 – 108 MIN · MIN 13% → 49% +37MIN 13% → 49%+37 pts
- OT8.8Julius Randle makes 9-foot pullup jump shotHOU 108 – 110 MIN · MIN 50% → 97% +47MIN 50% → 97%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -1.5
- ML HOU -130 / MIN +110
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -0.5
- HOU 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 48.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -119
- MIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 112.5 – 111.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −5 | −46 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +8 Elo | MIN 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.2 | Points scored | 118.47th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.2 | Points allowed | 114.511th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.9 | Margin | +3.910th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.0 | Offense rating | 115.011th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 111.38th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.0 | Pace | 102.410th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 14th of 3018–18 | Road vs home | 24–138th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149326th of 30 |
| 13th of 301555 | Elo rating | 156811th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–41 | 31–41 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–37 | 23–34 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 31–40 | 33–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–5 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Jan 16MIN 105 @ HOU 110Picked HOU 59%Hit
- Feb 21MIN 115 @ HOU 121Picked HOU 60%Hit
- Feb 6HOU 114 @ MIN 127Picked MIN 52%Hit
- Dec 27MIN 113 @ HOU 112Picked HOU 50%Miss
- Nov 26HOU 117 @ MIN 111Picked MIN 55%Miss
- Apr 2HOU 106 @ MIN 113Picked MIN 62%Hit
- Feb 4HOU 90 @ MIN 111Picked MIN 67%Hit
- Jan 5MIN 122 @ HOU 95Picked MIN 52%Hit