Minnesota Timberwolves at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Bones HylandPoints23
- Ayo DosunmuAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds14
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints29
- Jaylen BrownAssists4
- Jayson TatumRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–92
- Q420.5Max Shulga makes free throw 2 of 2102–92
- Q420.5Max Shulga makes free throw 1 of 2102–91
- Q420.5Zyon Pullin shooting foul102–90
- Q420.5Max Shulga offensive rebound102–90
- Q420.5Charles Bassey misses driving layup102–90
- Q421.9Charles Bassey offensive rebound102–90
- Q424.8Hugo Gonzalez misses 25-foot running jump shot102–90
- Q427.9Ron Harper Jr. defensive rebound102–90
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q20.4Bones Hyland makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotMIN 47 – 44 BOS · MIN 29% → 37% +8MIN 29% → 37%+8 pts
- Q411:18Derrick White makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Neemias Queta assists)MIN 78 – 79 BOS · BOS 61% → 69% +8BOS 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q49:05Bones Hyland makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Clark assists)MIN 83 – 81 BOS · MIN 32% → 46% +14MIN 32% → 46%+14 pts
- Q47:30Naz Reid makes running layup (Kyle Anderson assists)MIN 87 – 81 BOS · MIN 59% → 69% +10MIN 59% → 69%+10 pts
- Q46:55Naz Reid makes 30-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)MIN 91 – 81 BOS · MIN 75% → 86% +11MIN 75% → 86%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -10.5
- ML MIN +340 / BOS -440
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -9.5
- BOS 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 81.9%, market 78.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -359
- MIN +359 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 106.0 – 116.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1662 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −56 | +54 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | MIN crossed 1 time zone and BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +262 Elo | BOS 81.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 73.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 74.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 78.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.6 | Points scored | 114.420th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.8 | Points allowed | 107.01st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.8 | Margin | +7.43rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 117.72nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 110.04th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.4 | Pace | 96.930th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 9th of 3019–15 | Road vs home | 24–106th of 30 |
| 25th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 148230th of 30 |
| 12th of 301546 | Elo rating | 16623rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–41 | 40–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–34 | 28–23 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 33–38 | 25–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–3 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.