San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints19
- Stephon CastleAssists9
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds15
Grizzlies- GG JacksonPoints20
- Cam SpencerAssists7
- Taylor HendricksRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–98
- Q410.8shot clock turnover123–98
- Q432.6Bismack Biyombo defensive rebound123–98
- Q434.8Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses free throw 1 of 1123–98
- Q434.8Carter Bryant shooting foul123–98
- Q434.8Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes running layup123–98
- Q438.5Olivier-Maxence Prosper defensive rebound123–96
- Q441.2Lindy Waters III misses 25-foot three point jumper123–96
- Q41:01Javon Small makes free throw 2 of 2123–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:43Victor Wembanyama makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Devin Vassell assists)SA 2 – 0 MEM · SA 91% → 93% +2SA 91% → 93%+2 pts
- Q110:56Cedric Coward makes running layup (Javon Small assists)SA 2 – 2 MEM · MEM 7% → 9% +2MEM 7% → 9%+2 pts
- Q110:40Devin Vassell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 5 – 2 MEM · SA 91% → 93% +2SA 91% → 93%+2 pts
- Q19:52Cedric Coward makes 2-foot two point shot (Javon Small assists)SA 5 – 4 MEM · MEM 7% → 8% +2MEM 7% → 8%+2 pts
- Q19:28Dylan Harper makes 25-foot three point jumper (Victor Wembanyama assists)SA 8 – 4 MEM · SA 92% → 94% +2SA 92% → 94%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 91%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- SA -16.5
- ML SA -1800 / MEM +1000
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -10.5
- SA 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- SA: Elo 84.6%, market 91.2%
- Fair odds
- SA -1042
- MEM +1042 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 125.5 – 109.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1675 | 1392 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +16 | −33 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Ty Jerome −43 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +296 Elo | SA 84.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 88.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 87.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 91.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.1 | Points scored | 115.318th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 119.124th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.3 | Margin | −3.722nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.8 | Offense rating | 111.125th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.6 | Defense rating | 114.720th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.8 | Pace | 103.45th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3025–11 | Road vs home | 12–2125th of 30 |
| 11th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150215th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301675 | Elo rating | 139222nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−33 Elo- Ty Jerome left ankle sprain−43 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–31 | 33–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–25 | 10–9 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 23–29 |
| Overs–unders | 32–41 | 34–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 4–7 MEM in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.
- Jan 6SA 105 @ MEM 106Picked SA 68%Miss
- Dec 2MEM 119 @ SA 126Picked SA 64%Hit
- Nov 18MEM 101 @ SA 111Picked SA 68%Hit
- Mar 1SA 130 @ MEM 128Picked MEM 65%Miss
- Feb 3SA 109 @ MEM 128Picked MEM 59%Hit
- Jan 17MEM 140 @ SA 112Picked SA 53%Miss
- Jan 15MEM 129 @ SA 115Picked MEM 56%Hit
- Apr 9SA 102 @ MEM 87Picked MEM 56%Miss