Memphis Grizzlies at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- GG JacksonPoints26
- Walter Clayton Jr.Assists6
- Tyler BurtonRebounds8
Hawks- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerPoints26
- CJ McCollumAssists9
- Zaccharie RisacherRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–146
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–146
- Q421.5Hawks defensive team rebound107–146
- Q423.6GG Jackson misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot107–146
- Q429.5Walter Clayton Jr. defensive rebound107–146
- Q435.0Christian Koloko misses 25-foot three point jumper107–146
- Q449.1Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound107–146
- Q452.2Walter Clayton Jr. misses 22-foot running jump shot107–146
- Q456.8Tyler Burton defensive rebound107–146
- Q458.3Buddy Hield misses 24-foot three point jumper107–146
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:01Ty Jerome makes 23-foot three point jumperMEM 5 – 0 ATL · MEM 16% → 21% +4MEM 16% → 21%+4 pts
- Q110:27Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)MEM 5 – 3 ATL · ATL 79% → 83% +4ATL 79% → 83%+4 pts
- Q19:50Dyson Daniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)MEM 6 – 6 ATL · ATL 82% → 86% +4ATL 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q16:37Mouhamed Gueye makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)MEM 8 – 15 ATL · ATL 89% → 92% +3ATL 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q158.9Jonathan Kuminga makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jock Landale assists)MEM 20 – 29 ATL · ATL 91% → 93% +3ATL 91% → 93%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -13.5
- ML MEM +600 / ATL -900
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -8.5
- ATL 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 80.2%, market 86.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -630
- MEM +630 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 112.5 – 126.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1400 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −71 | −6 | MEM: Missing Cam Spencer −19, Brandon Clarke −12 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +243 Elo | ATL 80.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 87.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 87.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 86.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 117.97th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.7 | Points allowed | 116.520th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.2 | Margin | +1.314th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 113.514th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 112.214th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.4 | Pace | 103.64th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3011–24 | Road vs home | 20–1616th of 30 |
| 17th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149126th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301400 | Elo rating | 154313th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−71 Elo- Cam Spencer low back soreness−19 Elo
- Brandon Clarke right calf strain−12 Elo
Hawks
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–37 | 38–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 18–18 |
| Underdog | 23–28 | 20–15 |
| Overs–unders | 33–37 | 35–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 2–3 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.