Chicago Bulls at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Collin SextonPoints22
- Josh GiddeyAssists11
- Matas BuzelisRebounds9
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints25
- Jalen WilliamsAssists8
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–131
- Q41.4shot clock turnover113–131
- Q424.2Payton Sandfort defensive rebound113–131
- Q426.7Patrick Williams misses 10-foot two point shot113–131
- Q432.2Patrick Williams offensive rebound113–131
- Q434.8Patrick Williams misses free throw 2 of 2113–131
- Q434.8Patrick Williams makes free throw 1 of 2113–131
- Q434.8Payton Sandfort personal foul112–131
- Q445.5Patrick Williams defensive rebound112–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:13Cason Wallace makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)CHI 62 – 56 OKC · OKC 66% → 73% +7OKC 66% → 73%+7 pts
- Q37:26Collin Sexton makes 25-foot running jump shot (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 79 – 72 OKC · CHI 29% → 37% +9CHI 29% → 37%+9 pts
- Q34:53Leonard Miller makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 82 – 78 OKC · CHI 23% → 32% +9CHI 23% → 32%+9 pts
- Q34:23Isaac Okoro makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)CHI 85 – 78 OKC · CHI 32% → 42% +10CHI 32% → 42%+10 pts
- Q31:35Jaylin Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)CHI 88 – 89 OKC · OKC 71% → 80% +9OKC 71% → 80%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 92%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -18.5
- ML CHI +1100 / OKC -2100
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 91%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -14.5
- OKC 91%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- OKC: Elo 91.2%, market 92.0%
- Fair odds
- OKC -1145
- CHI +1145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 111.5 – 130.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1380 | 1722 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | +22 | CHI: Missing Anfernee Simons −10 · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +406 Elo | OKC 91.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 91.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 91.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 92.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 118.65th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.8 | Points allowed | 107.62nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.5 | Margin | +11.01st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 116.46th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 105.61st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.5 | Pace | 100.919th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 22nd of 3011–23 | Road vs home | 29–61st of 30 |
| 8th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149425th of 30 |
| 24th of 301380 | Elo rating | 17221st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−7 Elo- Anfernee Simons wrist injury−10 Elo
Thunder
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–39 | 34–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–19 | 31–38 |
| Underdog | 26–20 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 33–39 | 37–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–5 OKC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.