Oklahoma City Thunder at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints33
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Luguentz DortRebounds5
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints31
- Jaylen BrownAssists8
- Jayson TatumRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–119
- Q418.0Jayson Tatum defensive rebound109–119
- Q419.5Jared McCain misses 27-foot three point jumper109–119
- Q425.6Cason Wallace offensive rebound109–119
- Q428.4Ajay Mitchell misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot109–119
- Q432.4Derrick White makes free throw 2 of 2109–119
- Q432.4Isaiah Joe enters the game for Jalen Williams109–118
- Q432.4Jared McCain enters the game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander109–118
- Q432.4Baylor Scheierman enters the game for Neemias Queta109–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:10Baylor Scheierman makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)OKC 71 – 69 BOS · BOS 31% → 41% +9BOS 31% → 41%+9 pts
- Q35:07Baylor Scheierman makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jaylen Brown assists)OKC 73 – 74 BOS · BOS 41% → 51% +10BOS 41% → 51%+10 pts
- Q31:22Payton Pritchard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)OKC 80 – 84 BOS · BOS 52% → 63% +12BOS 52% → 63%+12 pts
- Q410:47Sam Hauser makes 23-foot three point jumper (Neemias Queta assists)OKC 85 – 93 BOS · BOS 69% → 80% +11BOS 69% → 80%+11 pts
- Q49:27Alex Caruso makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)OKC 90 – 96 BOS · OKC 16% → 26% +10OKC 16% → 26%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -2.5
- ML OKC -130 / BOS +110
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -2
- OKC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- OKC: Elo 57.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- OKC -119
- BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 112.5 – 110.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1734 | 1641 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +46 | +49 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +54 Elo | OKC 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 55.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30118.7 | Points scored | 114.122nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.5 | Points allowed | 107.01st of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.3 | Margin | +7.24th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.5 | Offense rating | 117.43rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.4 | Defense rating | 109.94th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.9 | Pace | 96.930th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 1st of 3028–8 | Road vs home | 24–116th of 30 |
| 26th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 148330th of 30 |
| 1st of 301734 | Elo rating | 16414th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–38 | 40–31 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 31–37 | 28–24 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 36–36 | 25–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 4–1 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.