Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Toumani CamaraPoints30
- Jrue HolidayAssists11
- Donovan ClinganRebounds12
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints35
- Nikola JokicAssists13
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game132–137
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime132–137
- OT9.2Nikola Jokic defensive rebound132–137
- OT12.5Scoot Henderson misses running pullup jump shot132–137
- OT17.3Scoot Henderson defensive rebound132–137
- OT18.9Jamal Murray misses driving layup132–137
- OT37.6Deni Avdija makes running layup132–137
- OT41.0Robert Williams III defensive rebound130–137
- OT43.9Christian Braun misses 22-foot three point jumper130–137
- OT1:02Nikola Jokic defensive rebound130–137
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:51Cameron Johnson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)POR 119 – 116 DEN · DEN 13% → 31% +18DEN 13% → 31%+18 pts
- Q41:12Aaron Gordon makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)POR 123 – 123 DEN · DEN 18% → 54% +35DEN 18% → 54%+35 pts
- Q426.8Aaron Gordon makes 20-foot jumper (Jamal Murray assists)POR 123 – 125 DEN · DEN 52% → 87% +35DEN 52% → 87%+35 pts
- Q419.8Deni Avdija makes driving layupPOR 125 – 125 DEN · POR 10% → 48% +39POR 10% → 48%+39 pts
- OT4:39Aaron Gordon makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)POR 125 – 128 DEN · DEN 57% → 75% +18DEN 57% → 75%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -6.5
- ML POR +235 / DEN -290
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -8
- DEN 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.4 pts
- DEN: Elo 77.7%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- DEN -249
- POR +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 114.5 – 121.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1620 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +56 | +91 | POR: Missing Shaedon Sharpe −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | POR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +217 Elo | DEN 77.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 73.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 73.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 121.61st of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 116.820th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +4.78th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 119.91st of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 115.221st of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.1 | Pace | 100.222nd of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 18th of 3018–21 | Road vs home | 25–138th of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149126th of 30 |
| 19th of 301487 | Elo rating | 16206th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+56 Elo- Shaedon Sharpe did not dress−5 Elo
Nuggets
+91 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–36 | 42–36 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–16 | 25–29 |
| Underdog | 23–20 | 17–7 |
| Overs–unders | 41–37 | 47–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 3–8 DEN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Mar 22POR 112 @ DEN 128Picked DEN 74%Hit
- Feb 20DEN 157 @ POR 103Picked DEN 53%Hit
- Oct 31DEN 107 @ POR 109Picked DEN 67%Miss
- Mar 21DEN 109 @ POR 128Picked DEN 54%Miss
- Feb 12POR 121 @ DEN 132Picked DEN 78%Hit
- Feb 10POR 117 @ DEN 146Picked DEN 78%Hit
- Dec 19DEN 124 @ POR 126Picked DEN 75%Miss
- Mar 23DEN 114 @ POR 111Picked DEN 62%Hit