Denver Nuggets at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints37
- Nikola JokicAssists12
- Nikola JokicRebounds17
Jazz- Brice SensabaughPoints28
- Cody WilliamsAssists9
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–117
- Q45.7shot clock turnover130–117
- Q429.8Kennedy Chandler makes running layup130–117
- Q434.6Kennedy Chandler defensive rebound130–115
- Q437.9David Roddy misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot130–115
- Q446.8Kennedy Chandler makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot130–115
- Q41:01David Roddy makes 5-foot two point shot130–113
- Q41:13David Roddy defensive rebound128–113
- Q41:13Bez Mbeng misses free throw 2 of 2128–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:18Brice Sensabaugh makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bez Mbeng assists)DEN 99 – 93 UTAH · UTAH 5% → 10% +4UTAH 5% → 10%+4 pts
- Q410:17Christian Braun makes driving layup (Cameron Johnson assists)DEN 101 – 95 UTAH · DEN 86% → 90% +4DEN 86% → 90%+4 pts
- Q49:41Brice Sensabaugh makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (John Konchar assists)DEN 101 – 97 UTAH · UTAH 10% → 14% +5UTAH 10% → 14%+5 pts
- Q49:16Jamal Murray makes two point shotDEN 103 – 97 UTAH · DEN 86% → 90% +5DEN 86% → 90%+5 pts
- Q48:35Christian Braun makes 3-foot dunkDEN 105 – 97 UTAH · DEN 91% → 94% +4DEN 91% → 94%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 91%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -17.5
- ML DEN -1800 / UTAH +1000
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 93%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -14.5
- DEN 91%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- DEN: Elo 91.1%, market 91.2%
- Fair odds
- DEN -1042
- UTAH +1042 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 133.5 – 116.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 249.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1613 | 1271 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +72 | −25 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +404 Elo | DEN 91.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 93.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 93.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 91.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30121.3 | Points scored | 117.39th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 125.430th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.7 | Margin | −8.127th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.8 | Offense rating | 112.120th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 119.829th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.1 | Pace | 103.83rd of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 6th of 3024–15 | Road vs home | 13–2627th of 30 |
| 25th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15096th of 30 |
| 6th of 301613 | Elo rating | 127129th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+72 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–35 | 39–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–28 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 16–7 | 34–34 |
| Overs–unders | 46–30 | 45–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 10–1 UTAH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 11.
- Mar 27UTAH 129 @ DEN 135Picked DEN 92%Hit
- Mar 2DEN 128 @ UTAH 125Picked DEN 82%Hit
- Dec 22UTAH 112 @ DEN 135Picked DEN 84%Hit
- Mar 28UTAH 93 @ DEN 129Picked DEN 91%Hit
- Dec 30DEN 132 @ UTAH 121Picked DEN 72%Hit
- Nov 27DEN 122 @ UTAH 103Picked DEN 81%Hit
- Nov 2UTAH 103 @ DEN 129Picked DEN 81%Hit
- Apr 9DEN 111 @ UTAH 95Picked DEN 82%Hit