Cleveland Cavaliers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Evan MobleyPoints34
- James HardenAssists14
- Evan MobleyRebounds17
Jazz- Cody WilliamsPoints26
- Kyle FilipowskiAssists5
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–113
- Q419.6Cody Williams makes 12-foot step back jumpshot122–113
- Q436.1Keon Ellis makes 22-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)122–111
- Q459.3James Harden defensive rebound119–111
- Q41:01Oscar Tshiebwe misses free throw 2 of 2119–111
- Q41:01Oscar Tshiebwe makes free throw 1 of 2119–111
- Q41:01Sam Merrill shooting foul119–110
- Q41:04Kennedy Chandler defensive rebound119–110
- Q41:09Sam Merrill misses 25-foot three point jumper119–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:41Sam Merrill makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (Keon Ellis assists)CLE 102 – 100 UTAH · CLE 70% → 78% +8CLE 70% → 78%+8 pts
- Q47:15Kennedy Chandler makes 28-foot three point jumper (Oscar Tshiebwe assists)CLE 103 – 103 UTAH · UTAH 18% → 31% +12UTAH 18% → 31%+12 pts
- Q45:40Ace Bailey makes driving layupCLE 103 – 105 UTAH · UTAH 33% → 44% +12UTAH 33% → 44%+12 pts
- Q45:16Thomas Bryant makes 5-foot two point shotCLE 105 – 105 UTAH · CLE 55% → 67% +12CLE 55% → 67%+12 pts
- Q44:54Keon Ellis makes running layup (James Harden assists)CLE 107 – 105 UTAH · CLE 66% → 77% +11CLE 66% → 77%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -16.5
- ML CLE -1600 / UTAH +900
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 90%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -11.5
- CLE 87%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 86.8%, market 90.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -941
- UTAH +941 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 129.5 – 113.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1611 | 1273 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +15 | −10 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +327 Elo | CLE 86.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 90.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 90.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 90.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.4 | Points scored | 117.49th of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 125.430th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.2 | Margin | −8.026th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.7 | Offense rating | 112.120th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 119.830th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.7 | Pace | 103.83rd of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 7th of 3022–14 | Road vs home | 13–2526th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15077th of 30 |
| 7th of 301611 | Elo rating | 127329th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–44 | 38–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 22–39 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 33–34 |
| Overs–unders | 36–38 | 45–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–1 UTAH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.