Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints36
- Paolo BancheroAssists5
- Desmond BaneRebounds7
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints42
- James HardenAssists7
- Evan MobleyRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–136
- Q40.1Paolo Banchero bad pass
turnover (James Harden steals)131–136
- Q40.8Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2131–136
- Q40.8Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2131–135
- Q40.8Jamal Cain enters the game for Wendell Carter Jr.131–134
- Q40.8Wendell Carter Jr. personal foul131–134
- Q41.1Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three pointer (Jevon Carter assists)131–134
- Q44.2Magic Full timeout128–134
- Q44.2Tristan da Silva defensive rebound128–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q20.1James Harden makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotORL 68 – 71 CLE · CLE 71% → 78% +7CLE 71% → 78%+7 pts
- Q33:40James Harden makes 25-foot three pointerORL 91 – 96 CLE · CLE 74% → 82% +8CLE 74% → 82%+8 pts
- Q32:24Jevon Carter makes 26-foot three pointer (Desmond Bane assists)ORL 95 – 99 CLE · ORL 14% → 21% +7ORL 14% → 21%+7 pts
- Q31:56Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three pointerORL 95 – 102 CLE · CLE 79% → 87% +7CLE 79% → 87%+7 pts
- Q46:47Max Strus makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)ORL 112 – 119 CLE · CLE 80% → 90% +9CLE 80% → 90%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -10.5
- ML ORL +350 / CLE -455
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -7
- CLE 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 75.0%, market 78.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -369
- ORL +369 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 110.0 – 120.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1618 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −5 | +10 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | CLE crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +191 Elo | CLE 75.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 78.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 78.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 78.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 119.04th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 114.713th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +4.38th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 116.36th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 112.114th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.5 | Pace | 101.713th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 16th of 3016–17 | Road vs home | 22–139th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149623rd of 30 |
| 16th of 301506 | Elo rating | 16186th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–39 | 29–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–26 | 21–37 |
| Underdog | 14–13 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 38–33 | 34–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 7–10 CLE in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.
- Mar 11CLE 122 @ ORL 128Picked CLE 58%Miss
- Jan 26ORL 98 @ CLE 114Picked CLE 64%Hit
- Jan 24CLE 119 @ ORL 105Picked ORL 53%Miss
- Mar 16ORL 108 @ CLE 103Picked CLE 80%Miss
- Feb 25CLE 122 @ ORL 82Picked CLE 68%Hit
- Nov 1ORL 109 @ CLE 120Picked CLE 72%Hit
- May 5ORL 94 @ CLE 106PlayoffsPicked ORL 55%Miss
- May 3CLE 96 @ ORL 103PlayoffsPicked ORL 66%Hit