Cleveland Cavaliers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints27
- James HardenAssists10
- Sam MerrillRebounds10
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints25
- Dejounte MurrayAssists9
- Yves MissiRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–106
- Q42.2Sam Merrill defensive rebound111–106
- Q42.2Trey Murphy III misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot111–106
- Q44.2Pelicans Full timeout111–106
- Q44.2Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 1111–106
- Q44.2Trey Murphy III shooting foul110–106
- Q44.2Donovan Mitchell makes driving layup (James Harden assists)110–106
- Q426.8Dejounte Murray makes running layup108–106
- Q431.4Saddiq Bey defensive rebound108–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:56James Harden makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 94 – 95 NO · CLE 34% → 50% +16CLE 34% → 50%+16 pts
- Q44:47Donovan Mitchell makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (James Harden assists)CLE 98 – 99 NO · CLE 35% → 48% +13CLE 35% → 48%+13 pts
- Q44:10Max Strus makes driving layupCLE 100 – 99 NO · CLE 47% → 61% +14CLE 47% → 61%+14 pts
- Q43:33James Harden makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotCLE 102 – 99 NO · CLE 62% → 75% +14CLE 62% → 75%+14 pts
- Q426.8Dejounte Murray makes running layupCLE 108 – 106 NO · NO 1% → 13% +12NO 1% → 13%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -4.5
- ML CLE -205 / NO +170
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -3
- CLE 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 61.9%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- CLE -181
- NO +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 121.0 – 116.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1613 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +5 | +62 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +85 Elo | CLE 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 66.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.1 | Points scored | 115.616th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.8 | Points allowed | 119.325th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.3 | Margin | −3.722nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.3 | Offense rating | 112.320th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 115.924th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.8 | Pace | 102.211th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 7th of 3021–14 | Road vs home | 16–2123rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 30 |
| 6th of 301613 | Elo rating | 143621st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–42 | 41–30 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 20–37 | 12–3 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 29–27 |
| Overs–unders | 34–36 | 35–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–1 NO in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.