Los Angeles Lakers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints33
- Luka DoncicAssists8
- Deandre AytonRebounds12
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints16
- Paolo BancheroAssists6
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–104
- Q40.0Magic offensive team rebound105–104
- Q40.0Jalen Suggs misses heave jump shot105–104
- Q41.0Luke Kennard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)105–104
- Q42.6Lakers Full timeout102–104
- Q42.6Lakers offensive team rebound102–104
- Q42.6Paolo Banchero blocks LeBron James 's 2-foot layup102–104
- Q44.7Luke Kennard enters the game for Jake LaRavia102–104
- Q44.7Lakers Full timeout102–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:25Austin Reaves makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 95 – 94 ORL · LAL 41% → 59% +18LAL 41% → 59%+18 pts
- Q41:43Paolo Banchero makes driving layupLAL 97 – 100 ORL · ORL 59% → 78% +19ORL 59% → 78%+19 pts
- Q41:32Luka Doncic makes 7-foot pullup jump shotLAL 99 – 100 ORL · LAL 20% → 40% +20LAL 20% → 40%+20 pts
- Q41:16Wendell Carter Jr. makes 16-foot jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)LAL 99 – 102 ORL · ORL 61% → 82% +21ORL 61% → 82%+21 pts
- Q41.0Luke Kennard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)LAL 105 – 104 ORL · LAL <1% → >99% +100LAL <1% → >99%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -2.5
- ML LAL -155 / ORL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -3.5
- LAL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- LAL: Elo 64.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- LAL -140
- ORL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 118.5 – 116.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1594 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +70 | +6 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +104 Elo | LAL 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 59.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 115.417th of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 114.411th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +1.015th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.3 | Offense rating | 112.618th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 111.610th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.1 | Pace | 101.615th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 5th of 3022–13 | Road vs home | 21–1210th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150312th of 30 |
| 7th of 301594 | Elo rating | 151817th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–29 | 31–38 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–13 | 18–25 |
| Underdog | 13–16 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders | 37–33 | 37–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 1–4 ORL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.