Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints37
- Andrew NembhardAssists14
- Andrew NembhardRebounds7
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints39
- Desmond BaneAssists7
- Goga BitadzeRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–126
- Q40.0Desmond Bane offensive rebound128–126
- Q40.0Pascal Siakam blocks Paolo Banchero's driving layup128–126
- Q45.0Jevon Carter enters the game for Jamal Cain128–126
- Q45.0Magic Full timeout128–126
- Q45.0Magic defensive team rebound128–126
- Q45.0Aaron Nesmith vs. Paolo Banchero (Tristan da Silva gains possession)128–126
- Q48.4Pascal Siakam misses 13-foot turnaround jump shot128–126
- Q428.9Pacers Full timeout128–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q343.1Micah Potter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 100 – 93 ORL · IND 48% → 60% +12IND 48% → 60%+12 pts
- Q310.7Aaron Nesmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 103 – 95 ORL · IND 53% → 65% +12IND 53% → 65%+12 pts
- Q47:57Aaron Nesmith makes 25-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 116 – 107 ORL · IND 66% → 79% +13IND 66% → 79%+13 pts
- Q41:52Wendell Carter Jr. makes dunk (Desmond Bane assists)IND 125 – 121 ORL · ORL 8% → 19% +11ORL 8% → 19%+11 pts
- Q41:33Andrew Nembhard makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 128 – 122 ORL · IND 76% → 94% +18IND 76% → 94%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -10.5
- ML IND +400 / ORL -535
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -9
- ORL 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- ORL: Elo 80.9%, market 80.8%
- Fair odds
- ORL -421
- IND +421 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 111.5 – 122.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1317 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | −6 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +251 Elo | ORL 80.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 80.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 80.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 80.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30111.4 | Points scored | 115.317th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.4 | Points allowed | 114.311th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−9.0 | Margin | +1.016th of 30 |
| 29th of 30108.2 | Offense rating | 112.519th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.0 | Defense rating | 111.611th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.4 | Pace | 101.516th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 30th of 305–31 | Road vs home | 21–1312th of 30 |
| 11th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 30 |
| 28th of 301317 | Elo rating | 151617th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–40 | 32–38 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 18–25 |
| Underdog | 28–33 | 14–13 |
| Overs–unders | 35–36 | 37–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 2–7 ORL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Jan 4IND 127 @ ORL 135Picked ORL 68%Hit
- Dec 31ORL 112 @ IND 110Picked ORL 63%Hit
- Apr 11ORL 129 @ IND 115Picked IND 61%Miss
- Nov 13IND 90 @ ORL 94Picked ORL 51%Hit
- Nov 6ORL 111 @ IND 118Picked IND 65%Hit
- Oct 28IND 115 @ ORL 119Picked ORL 65%Hit
- Mar 10IND 111 @ ORL 97Picked ORL 58%Miss
- Dec 23ORL 117 @ IND 110Picked IND 56%Miss